The 2026 NBA playoffs is on the horizon, and by and large, the Toronto Raptors can consider the 2025-26 season a success. Coming off of two seasons in which they won a total of 55 games, the Raptors are on track to, at the very least, qualify for the postseason. This is a huge win, and one could argue, is the bare minimum anyway since they have so much committed money-wise to their current core.
Nonetheless, the Raptors will want to make it deep into the playoffs. They aren't just going to be a team that's happy to be included in the postseason picture. But as things stand, the Raptors' standing as a surefire playoff team is far from guaranteed. While they are currently sitting in an outright playoff spot being in fifth place in the East, their 42-32 record has them just 1.5 games safe of the play-in tournament.
A lot of things can still go wrong for the Raptors, and this is the scenario they would want to avoid at all costs if they were to become the surprise team of the 2026 NBA playoffs.
Absolute Raptors nightmare scenario: Fall to the play-in tournament
The absolute nightmare scenario for the Raptors right now is if they fall out of the top-six in the East entirely. Considering how jumbled up the play-in tournament picture is in that conference, there is little to no difference in quality between those teams. Anything can happen, and the Raptors could even fall out of the playoffs completely.
None of the teams in the play-in picture seem particularly appealing to face. The Atlanta Hawks, which have zoomed all the way to sixth, have been excellent since the All-Star break. The Philadelphia 76ers have Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and Paul George all healthy and firing.
Even the Miami Heat and Orlando Magic, both teams struggling over the past few weeks, can be tough outs in elimination settings (these two teams qualified for the playoffs via the play-in last season. And last but not the least, the Charlotte Hornets have proven to be a fierce team to face, and in a single-game elimination setting, their prolific offense might lead to them running away with the game.
The good news is that the Raptors, more likely than not, will be able to hold on to their outright playoff spot. A game against the Detroit Pistons will be tough, but back-to-back contests against the Memphis Grizzlies and Sacramento Kings are gifts. They will face the Brooklyn Nets to end the season as well.
Sure, the Raptors will be facing three elite teams (Pistons, Boston Celtics, and New York Knicks) before the season ends. They have two more games against the Heat, a team also fighting for its playoff life. But Toronto should still be a favorite to make it to the playoffs outright.
Realistic Raptors nightmare scenario: Fall to sixth, draw Knicks in first round
The Hawks are hot on the Raptors' tail; Atlanta has played in two more games than Toronto has, but are basically neck and neck with them in the standings. The Raptors will be happy to know that Atlanta will still have to face five winning teams to end the season (Cleveland Cavaliers twice, Heat, Magic, and Knicks), so the schedule is in Toronto's favor.
Be that as it may, the Hawks have been elite over the past month or so. They can certainly go toe to toe with the best in the NBA, and current form favors Atlanta in the battle for the fifth seed.
Should the Raptors fall to sixth, it becomes very likely for them to face the Knicks. Now that is not a scenario Toronto would want whatsoever. For starters, the Knicks have swept the season series thus far against the Raptors, and they've done so in convincing fashion.
The Knicks' total margin of victory on the season over the Raptors is at 81 points. That is worth mentioning again: the Knicks have outscored the Raptors this season by 81 points, or an average margin of victory of 20.3. And it's not like the Raptors have many excuses for this; Brandon Ingram and Scottie Barnes played all four games of their regular season series.
In fact, the Raptors have lost all of their past 12 contests against the Knicks dating back to the 2023-24 campaign. New York has been Toronto's bogey team, and as things stand, there is no reason to expect anything different to happen once the playoffs come around.
The Raptors should want to hold on to the fifth seed for dear life, or, at the very least, they have to be hoping that the Knicks don't fall to fourth if they finish fifth. Just avoid New York, and Toronto has a puncher's chance of maybe making it to the second round.
