In one of the biggest games of the 2025-2026 college basketball season, Duke makes the short trip to Chapel Hill to take on North Carolina at the Dean Smith Center. Before the heated rivalry tips off, we will be making our Duke-North Carolina predictions.
While Duke vs. North Carolina always brings additional heat, the stakes could not be higher in 2026. The 21-1 Blue Devils sit atop the ACC and are ranked No. 4 in the country, while the 18-4 Tar Heels are just a few games behind them in the conference and sit 10 spots behind them in the AP poll.
Not only are Duke and North Carolina both gunning for a national title, but they each boast one of the best players in college basketball. Cameron Boozer entered the year as a consensus top-three recruit and has more than lived up to the expectations, pacing the Blue Devils with 23.3 points, 9.9 rebounds and 4.0 assists per game.
Kansas' Darryn Peterson is still the favorite to become the No. 1 pick of the 2026 NBA Draft, but Boozer is emerging as the Wooden Award frontrunner.
On the other side, Caleb Wilson has been just as consistent leading North Carolina and enters his first rivalry game averaging 20.0 points, 9.8 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.3 blocks per game. Needless to say, the head-to-head battle between Boozer and Wilson will be an intriguing matchup to watch within the game.
The Saturday afternoon affair is the first of two regular season meetings between Duke and North Carolina, who will meet again in Durham on March 7. The teams typically meet for a third time in the ACC conference tournament, but that matchup is never guaranteed.
Before the action unfolds, we will break down our Duke-North Carolina predictions.
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Cameron Boozer, Caleb Wilson both drop 30
Duke and North Carolina each have their fair share of veterans who are familiar with the rivalry, but freshmen Cameron Boozer and Caleb Wilson will steal the show. The star forwards have been two of the most consistent players in college basketball and will rise to the occasion on Saturday.
Boozer and Wilson are both entering the game at the right time. Boozer comes in having scored 19 or more points in eight of his last 10 games, including a pair of 30-point outings. Likewise, Wilson has scored 20 or more in his last four games and 12 of his last 14.
Boozer and Wilson will each have to deal with the size of their opponent's frontcourt. As two of the biggest and most physical teams in the country, North Carolina and Duke are among the few that can match each other's size. The interior battle will be one to watch, but nobody has been able to stop either freshman all season.
The Duke-North Carolina rivalry tends to bring the best out of the stars involved, and Boozer and Wilson will continue that trend in 2026. Nothing will come easy, but expect both freshmen to shine and lead their team in a neck-and-neck dogfight.
Duke, North Carolina's supporting cast cancel each other out
The greatest players overcome adversity, which is where Boozer and Wilson stand. However, Duke and North Carolina mirror each other in many ways, each tending to pound the rock inside while defending the paint effectively.
Boozer and Wilson are elite players who will do everything possible to carry their team to a gritty victory. Their teammates, however, will struggle to provide support.
Behind Boozer, sophomore guard Isaiah Evans is Duke's second-leading scorer, pitching in 14.4 points per game. Evans was on fire to begin 2026, but he hit a wall at the end of the month, entering Saturday's matchup averaging just 12.6 points on 44 percent shooting in his last three games.
Evans' mild slump will not get any easier when he goes head-to-head with North Carolina guard Seth Trimble, who has locked down opposing guards all season.
North Carolina turns to center Henri Veesaar for scoring behind Wilson. Veesar enters the game with 16.8 points and 9.0 rebounds on the year, but will have his hands full with Duke center Patrick Ngongba the entire game.
Led by Boozer, Ngongba, Wilson and Veesaar, both teams rank in the top 20 in opponent points in the paint allowed. Boozer and Wilson will get theirs, but the supporting casts will struggle to find the bottom of the net.
Both teams struggle from deep
When either Duke or North Carolina struggles to score inside, their entire offense tends to falter. It has not happened to the Blue Devils as much this season, but the blueprint is there — most teams just do not have the personnel to implement that game plan.
North Carolina, however, is effective at limiting points in the paint, which will make it difficult for each team to score from the perimeter. Neither is a prominent three-point shooting team to begin with, and neither team's guards thrive at creating high-quality jump shots off the dribble.
Evans is the best shot-creating guard in the game, but North Carolina's perimeter defense, led by Trimble, are adept at forcing opponents into difficult shots. The Tar Heels rank 15th in the country in opponent shooting efficiency and rank top 10 in forcing long two-point attempts.
Either team can get hot from deep, but neither of their offenses revolves around the long ball. The team that gets its outside game going first will likely emerge victorious.
Barring injuries, points will come at a premium in this Saturday afternoon affair. Regardless of who comes out on top, it will be a gritty, physical and chippy battle for as long as it lasts.
