The Final Four is set, and in the second game on Saturday, Arizona and Michigan will clash with a chance to go to the National Championship. Michigan last played for a national championship in 2018, but has not won it since 1989. Meanwhile, Arizona is looking for a chance to play for the title for the first time since 2001, and its first title since 1997. As the two teams prepare to face off, it is time for three bold predictions on the game.
After just two regular-season losses and a Big 12 conference tournament title, Arizona got the number one seed in the West Region. They were dominant throughout the tournament. Arizona opened the tournament with a 92-58 victory over Long Island. They would then take a 12-point win over Utah State, before dominating Arkansas 109-88. They then faced Purdue in the Elite Eight. For the first time in the tournament, Arizona found themselves trailing, down 38-31 at the end of the first half. Still, they would dominate in the second half, coming out with a 79-64 victory over Purdue and setting up a date with Michigan.
Meanwhile, Michigan lost just twice in the regular season but fell in the Big Ten Championship to Purdue. Still, it has been a dominant run to the Final Four for Michigan as well. Michigan opened up with a 101-80 victory over Howard before defeating Saint Louis by 23 in the second round. It was a slow start in the Sweet 16 agaisnt Alabama, as Michigan was down two at the end of the first half. They would then dominate the second half, winning 90-77. Michigan left no doubt against Tennessee, defeating the Vols 95-62.
Now, two of the best teams in the nation face off in Indianapolis.
The three-point game looms large
These two teams have been two of the most dominant on the interior this year. Most teams cannot counter the size and speed that they have inside, but now, two dominant front courts will be facing off. Both Arizona and Michigan are in the top ten in points scored in the paint. Arizona is also 26th in opponent scoring inside the paint, while Michigan is 23rd. Further, Michigan is third in the nation in defensive rebounds and second in blocks per game. Arizona is first in the nation in defensive rebounds, but 52nd in blocks.
The inside is dominant for both sides, which means both teams will need to kick it outside. Playing a game in a place such as Lucas Oil Stadium can be difficult on three point shooting. Non-basketball arenas typically lead to teams struggling early to figure out the rhythm of their shooting, with a different background behind the hoop.
Arizona was solid from three this year, sitting 36th in the nation in three-point shooting percentage. They did not shoot much from three, sitting 359th in three-point attempts per game, but when they did shoot from deep, they found some success. Still, just one player has attempted more than 150 threes this year. Brayden Burries has hit 68 of 169 three-point attempts this year. Meanwhile, Anthony Dell'Orso has made 49 of 148 attempts.
While Arizona has some solid three-point shooting, if Michigan can make this game about three-point shots, it will be beneficial. Michigan is 29th in the nation in three-point percentage, while also 106th in three-point attempts per game. They have four players who have attempted over 150 three-point attempts. This is led by Yaxel Lendeborg, who has made 64 of 172 threes this year. Meanwhile, Trey McKenny has hit 63 of 164 attempts, while Elliot Cadeau has hit 61 of 162. Finally, Nimari Burnett has hit 59 of 155 threes.
Not only does Michigan have more three-point shooters, but they are better against the three than Arizona. Michigan is 18th in the nation against the three this year, while Arizona is 35th. If both teams have to move to the outside, this will be an advantage for Michigan.
Yaxel Lendeborg steals the show
Arizona has multiple amazing players, such as Brayden Burries, Koa Peat, and Jaden Bradley. Still, if this game comes down to one player, the guy who will be stepping up is Yaxel Lendeborg for Michigan. Lendeborg is a finalist for the Naismith Men's Player of the Year. He was the Big Ten Player of the Year and a First Team all-Big Ten player. Further, he was named to the conference All-Defensive team this year.
He is scoring 15.2 points per game while adding seven rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.3 blocks per game this year. He has been dominant in the tournament, averaging 21 points per game. Further, he scored just nine points against Howard, scoring 23 or more in each of the last three games, with 27 against Tennessee. He also has 7.3 rebounds per game, including 12 rebounds against Alabama. He also had 4.3 assists per game, including seven against Alabama.
Lendeborg stepped up against Alabama and Tennessee, and will do the same in this one. Not only is he dominant inside, but he can pull the ball out to three and punish Arizona there, which could be the difference in this game as he puts up another 25 points with ten boards.
The West Coast drought continues
The West Coast has not won the National Championship in three decades. The last time a team out west won the National Championship was when Arizona won it all in 1997. Arizona has been to the Final Four four other times in its history. The first two times, in 1988 and 1994, they lost in the Final Four. In 1997, they won their Final Four game and the National Championship. In 2001, they made it to the National Championship, falling to Duke.
Meanwhile, Michigan has been dominant in Final Four games. They first made the Final Four in 1964 and lost in that round that year. Since then, they have reached the Final Four eight times, winning all eight times and advancing to the National Championship game. They have only won once, but they have continually been successful in this round of the tournament.
Michigan comes in as the favorite in this game, according to odds provided by DraftKings. Michigan is going to prove why they were the favorite coming in, eliminating Arizona and keeping the West Coast drought going. Meanwhile, they could be setting up an all Big Ten final, which would secure the conference its first title since Michigan State won it all in 2000.
