Alabama basketball dealt with a massive wave of adversity coming into March Madness when point guard Aden Holloway was arrested and taken away from the team right before its march to a championship. Nate Oats has been able to right the ship, however, getting the Crimson Tide to plays some of their best basketball when it has absolutely needed it.
Alabama opened its tournament run with a comfortable win over a tricky opponent in Hofstra that had become a trendy upset pick in the days leading up to the tournament. Then, on Sunday night, the Tide absolutely blitzed No. 5 seed Texas Tech with a barrage of 3-pointers and an assault on the boards, getting a 90-65 win and advancing to the Sweet 16.
In the regional semifinal, No. 1 seed Michigan awaits Alabama in a game that the Wolverines are overwhelmingly expected to win. Michigan has been dominant all year, rolling through the Big Ten in the regular season and blowing out a number of NCAA Tournament teams in the process.
It's a daunting task for an Alabama team that is without its starting point guard and was a bit inconsistent throughout the regular season. However, there is one thing that Nate Oats and company can lean on as they try to pull off the upset.
Alabama needs to lean into letting it fly from 3-point range
If you follow college basketball, you know that Nate Oats-coached teams love to win the math games. His teams love to shoot the ball from distance over and over, and that's how they want to create an advantage on the offensive end. Even Oats' best teams, such as his No. 1 overall seed Alabama team in 2022-23, shot a ton of 3s, and this year's squad is no different.
Alabama has the No. 1 3-point rate in the entire country, firing from beyond the arc on an insane 53.9% of their total attempts. While the Tide aren't the most prolific at knocking those looks down, it still knocks down a very respectable 36.1% of those 3-pointers.
While the season-long percentage, though nearly a top-50 mark, isn't going to knock your socks off, this is a team that can get red-hot if it sees the ball go in the basket a few times early in the game. The Texas Tech game is a perfect example, as Alabama was shooting better than 50% from downtown for much of the game before a few late misses dropped it to just 19-for-42 for the game.
Holloway, who will not be playing in this game, was the best 3-point shooter on the team in terms of percentage, as the starting point guard knocked down 43.8% of his looks from distance. However, if the Tide can funnel a lot of those attempts that Holloway is vacating to star guard Labaron Philon Jr. (39.7% from deep), he will have chances to catch fire and keep Alabama in the game against a very good Michigan defense.
Now let's get to the matchup on the other side. Michigan is one of the best defenses in the country, but its biggest strength is its interior defense with its monster front line of Aday Mara, Morez Johnson Jr. and Yaxel Lendeborg. The Wolverines are more than happy to let opponents fire away from deep. Michigan's opponents shoot 3s on 42.2% of their attempts, a higher mark than 271 teams in the nation.
Much of this comes down to how thew Wolverines guard two-man actions. Michigan is more than happy to let Mara sit in drop coverage and man the paint, taking away any driving lanes to the rim. That leaves the door open for opposing guards, which will be Philon in this case, to fire away, and he needs to be aggressive when those chances present themselves in this game.
Another big issue that could come into play for Michigan is its guard depth. Backup point guard LJ Cason is out for the season with a torn ACL, leaving Elliot Cadeau as the only true point guard in the rotation. If Cadeau is forced to play a ton of minutes at Alabama's rapid pace, some fatigue on the defensive end could allow Alabama to get some 3-pointers off.
Michigan does do a great job of funneling opponent 3-pointers to their bad shooters. Wolverines opponents make just 30.8% of their 3-pointers, highlighting that ability of Michigan to run opponents out of catch-and-shoot opportunities and keep the best shooters from getting open looks.
However, Alabama can avoid that with the amount of time Philon will spend with the ball. If he can get hot and the supporting cast can knock down some 3s when they are called upon, the Tide are dangerous enough to pull the upset.
