North Carolina Basketball will be a six seed in the NCAA Tournament. UNC has a date with the A-10 Champion, VCU, on Thursday night, and is on upset alert in the first round.
It was a solid season for the Tar Heels in 2025-26. They opened up 6-0 before a 74-58 loss ot Michigan State. Still, they would rebound against Kentucky, taking the win, on their way to winning seven in a row. They would then lose three of their next four games. First, they would lose to SMU 97-83, after SMU put up 58 points in the second half.
After beating Wake Forest at home, they would hit the road for a West Coast trip, losing both games. First, they would run out of steam agaisnt stanford, giving up 50 in the second half, and falling 95-90. They would not fare much better against Cal. After being down 37-54 in the first half, UNC tried to make the comeback, but fell short, losing 84-78.
They would roll off five more wins, including wins over Virginia and Duke, before falling to Miami on the road. After a win over Pitt, they would lose on the road again, falling to NC State 82-58. The Heels would win four more before losing on the road to Duke 76-61. They then lost in their first game in the ACC tournament, falling to Clemson 80-79. Overall, North Carolina did not lose a single game at home this year, but all eight losses were on the road or at a neutral site.
The NCAA tournament is all neutral sites, which could spell doom for the Heels.
UNC starts slow
North Carolina has struggled in the first half so far this year. They lost eight times this year, and in seven of the eight games, they were tied or down at the halftime break. Meanwhile, they have made multiple second-half comebacks to get the wins this year. The Heels are 48th in the nation in first-half points per game, with just 38.5 points per game. Still, the defense has been dreadful early on. They give up 35.3 points per game in the first half, which is 198th in the nation.
They will face VCU in the first game of the tournament for North Carolina, and it is not a great matchup for the slow starts. VUC is 18th in the nation in points per first half this year, while sitting 106th in opponent points per first half. VCU has led at the half in 16 of the last 17 games, and in the one game they did not lead, they were tied at the halftime break.
The Rams have also been great at holding on to leads. They have given up just one first-half lead in the last 17 games. In that game, they led by nine at the end of the first half against Saint Louis, but a second-half onslaught by the Billikens led to an 88-75 loss. Still, if North Carolina is down at the end of the first half, they will be on upset watch quickly.
The Caleb Wilson loss looms large
Caleb Wilson was hurt at practice on March 5, and he will miss the rest of the season. The Tar Heels have not won since Wilson went down with the injury and have scored below their season average in both games. Wilson was a major factor in North Carolina's success this year. He scored 19.8 points per game while adding 9.4 rebounds, 2.7 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.4 blocks. Furthermore, he was averaging 31.3 minutes per game. While a team losing its leading scorer is an issue, losing Wilson is much more. He led the team in minutes, points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks this year.
The rebounding game could be where North Carolina misses Wilson the most. North Carolina was 17th in the nation in rebounds per game this year while sitting 36th in defensive rebounding percentage. The Heels average 25.7 defensive rebounds per game, but on the season, over 18 percent of their defensive rebounds came from Wilson. Meanwhile, VCU has been solid on the offensive glass, sitting 94th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage.
Still, one of the biggest reasons for comebacks by UNC this year was second-chance points. North Carolina was not great on the offensive glass, sitting 155th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage. Much of that work came from Wilson, though. Nearly 20 percent of the team's offensive rebounds came this year from Wilson. Meanwhile, another major source was Henri Veesaar. If VCU, which is 79th in defensive rebounds, can focus on boxing out Veesaar, they will control the defensive glass and keep UNC from second-chance points.
North Carolina stumbled down the stretch
VCU saved its best basketball of the season for the end of the year. They won 15 of their last 16 games, including dominating in the conference tournament. After a tighter quarterfinal win over Duquesne, they defeated Saint Joseph's by 13 and then controlled the game with Dayton to win the A-10. Meanwhile, North Carolina struggled down the stretch run of the season.
North Carolina pulled a massive upset of Duke at home at the beginning of February. It was a strong second half that led UNC to the upset. Once again, the Heels struggled in the first half and were down by 12 at the end of the first half. Still, a strong second half from Wilson and Seth Trimble led North Carolina to the comeback.
The Tar Heels then fell in the next game to Miami before a rebound against Pitt. Then, the downfall began to happen. They lost by 24 to NC State, followed by four games of struggles, but pulled out late victories. North Carolina ended the season with a 15-point loss to Duke before being one-and-done in the ACC tournament, losing to Clemson. Overall, North Carolina is not playing at their best entering the tournament, while VCU is, and this could be a VCU victory if the Heels are not locked in and ready for the task at hand.
