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Penn State football heads into the Fiesta Bowl against Boise State, playing its best football of the year. Head coach James Franklin's team posted a dominant win over SMU in the first round of the College Football Playoff. The Nittany Lions now head into Glendale, Arizona, as the clear favorite against the No. 9 Broncos. James Franklin's teams have a history of being very reliable in games where they are the favorites.
However, Boise State should not be underestimated, especially as an underdog heading into the Fiesta Bowl. The Broncos have a history of shocking the world in this game, having gone 3-0 overall in Glendale. Penn State is also undefeated in the Fiesta Bowl, having gone 7-0 overall. The Nittany Lions capped off their greatest season in program history in 1987 with a 14-10 win over No. 1 Miami to seal their undefeated run.
Boise State's greatest weaknesses are masked by their greatest strengths
The Broncos have two clearcut weaknesses: its secondary and downfield passing attack. While those weaknesses are exploitable, they are covered up by Boise State's greatest strengths: its pass rush and ground game. As for the first example, Drew Allar's contributions in this game will be as crucial as ever. While Boise State's rush defense is exploitable, the team is far more susceptible to an explosive offense through the air.
Head coach Spencer Danielson's team currently ranks third-last in the Mountain West in passing yards allowed per contest. Oregon exploited that weakness in the Broncos' only loss this season in Eugene. In the tight affair, Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel completed 18 out of 21 passes for 243 yards and two touchdowns. While Oregon largely had a balanced attack throughout the contest, it was aggressive when airing it out to its star wide receivers, resulting in many explosive downfield plays.
Boise State covers up this weakness in the secondary with an aggressive pass rush. The Broncos currently rank second in the nation with 51 sacks. Drew Allar will, therefore, have to get the ball out quickly in this contest. This is precisely where a target like Tyler Warren comes in handy. Getting the ball to the First-team All-American early in this game will go a long way toward containing this pass rush and wearing down a Broncos' defense that will also have to deal with Penn State football's physical ground game.
Penn State can play this game conservatively in one area
While the Nittany Lions should be aggressive on offense, they can be more conservative on defense. James Franklin's glowing praise of Broncos' running back Ashton Jeanty indicates that the Penn State coach has the right mentality heading into the game. Boise State's tailback needs to be contained. The Broncos are averaging 39.1 points a game on the back of a historic rusher and their play-action passing offense.
Quarterback Maddux Madsen has done a solid job under center but has been shown to waver sometimes, particularly under pressure. Teams have tried their best to put Boise State's quarterback in those situations by putting nine players in the box to stop Jeanty. Of course, it hasn't worked out, as the Broncos running back still has his way against largely Mountain West Conference teams.
Penn State, however, has the personnel to stack the box against Boise while not getting burned in the secondary. Boise State does have some solid targets for Madsen in wideout Cameron Camper and tight end Matt Lauter. However, the Nittany Lions cannot let Jeanty get going. Oregon played the Broncos more straight up in the running game and were gashed for 192 and three touchdowns. Restricting Jeanty's ability to wear out its defense while making Madsen throw the ball downfield in third and long situations against pressure is where Penn State wants to find itself.
What's at stake in the 2024 Fiesta Bowl
A lot is at stake for both teams in this game. For Boise, the Broncos have an opportunity that their elite teams from the past have always wanted. Players like Jared Zabranksy, Ian Johnson, Kyle Wilson, Kellen Moore, and Doug Martin just wanted to find out how their teams could stack up to the elite in the college football world. Not only are the 2024 Broncos in this twelve-team field, but they also received the three seed and a bye into the College Football Playoff quarterfinals. They cannot take this opportunity for granted.
On the other side, what has been a successful season for James Franklin's team could end on a very sour note with a loss in Glendale. Penn State football is favored by more than ten points in this matchup. Many pundits believe the Nittany Lions received an easier path to the College Football Playoff semifinal than even Oregon. Should Boise State pull the upset, the rhetoric around Franklin's successful program will likely become much more negative.
