The Florida Gators arrive in College Station riding the kind of momentum that can flip a season. One week removed from toppling Texas at home, they face another daunting test against fifth-ranked Texas A&M.
“This has got a chance to be a multiplier,” Florida head coach Billy Napier said about building off the upset. “I'm hopeful that it will.”
The stakes are pretty high. Florida enters as a 7.5-point underdog. And they are looking to hold their momentum. Meanwhile, on the other end, we have the Aggies, who had their best start in nearly a decade with 5-0 on the board.
Florida's Dallas Wilson could replicate his breakout performance at Kyle Field
His debut against Texas was enough to show his caliber. Catching six passes for 111 yards and two touchdowns led all analysts to take notice. However, the true test lies ahead, repeating the same flawless performance in a hostile away ground.
Wilson brings much-needed talent to Florida this season. At 6-foot-3 and 215 pounds, he is an actual X-receiver who can win downfield, contested catches. Last week DJ Lagway operated in the pocket differently because of his presence.
The challenge is obvious. It can be tough to communicate when you are 20 yards away from your quarterback with 100,000 Aggies screaming. Also, Texas A&M will counter with Dezz Ricks and Will Lee III, both excellent corners in their own right.
“Florida is by far and away the most talented team we've played this year,” Aggies head coach Mike Elko acknowledged.
The Gators will test A&M's secondary deep. They have to. Their short passing game alone won't generate enough offense to keep pace. Florida's going to throw deep to Wilson right from the start. Just two or three big catches, and this will place him over 120 yards. And here's the thing: A&M's defense has struggled with those long plays before, especially earlier this year.
Which running Game will control the tempo and win the trenches?
Both teams will try to establish physical dominance up front. Whoever succeeds will likely leave with a victory.
Florida leaned heavily on Jaden Baugh against Texas. He carried the ball 27 times for 107 yards. Sticking with the run game like that opened up everything else. Lagway had time to throw deep to Wilson, and the same play we can expect in the next game.
The problem? Baugh might be a one-man show Saturday. Duke Clark got hurt against Texas and won't play. Everyone else on the depth chart is questionable or out. Baugh will need to shoulder nearly the entire workload.
Texas A&M counters with a two-headed monster in Le'Veon Moss and Rueben Owens II. They rushed for nearly 300 yards last week against Mississippi State. Their offensive line has created consistent push all season.
“Okay. Great opportunity in front of our team,” Napier said about the challenge as per On3's Zach Abolverdi. “Good football team, coach Elko is a heck of a coach.”
The Gators' defensive front has been stout all year. They're top-25 in rush defense and generated six sacks against Texas. But they haven't faced a ground attack quite like what A&M brings.
Expect both teams to approach 200 rushing yards. The defenses are too good for either offense to rely solely on passing. Whoever gets to 225 yards on the ground probably wins by double digits.
Florida needs Baugh to stay healthy and productive. One injury, and their offensive identity will shatter into pieces. A&M needs its offensive line to create holes early, establishing play-action opportunities downfield.
Can the Gators keep it close enough to cover the spread?
This feels like the classic moral victory scenario. The Gators have shown they can compete with elite teams. Sustaining that over four quarters in a brutal road environment is another matter entirely.
The spread sits at 7.5 points for good reason. Texas A&M is simply more complete right now. They can win multiple ways offensively. Their defense ranks among the SEC's best. Kyle Field at night gives them another built-in advantage.
“We're looking forward to the challenge,” Elko said in the press conference, “and we'll be excited to get back under the lights in Kyle Field.”
Florida has got another chance to prove itself. They've already exceeded expectations by beating Texas. The game stays close throughout. Florida's defense will force A&M into uncomfortable third-and-long situations. Lagway will make enough plays to keep the Gators within striking distance late.
But Marcel Reed and Mario Craver eventually break through. The Aggies will likely hit a crucial deep shot in the fourth quarter. Their special teams create a short field. Small advantages pile up. For the final prediction, we can expect both teams to pass above 20 points and Texas A&M to maintain a lead throughout.
The Gators prove last week wasn't a fluke. They show they belong in big games. But the road deficit proves too steep. Still, covering that 7.5-point spread validates everything Napier has been building toward. It keeps playoff hopes mathematically alive heading into November.
