Subscribe
Follow Us
Illinois football comes into the 2025 season with its highest preseason ranking since 1990. They come into the season ranked 12th in the AP Top 25, their best since starting the season 11th in 1990. This is just the seventh time they have been ranked in the preseason AP Top 25 since 1970.
Hopes are high in Bret Bielema's fifth season as the Fighting Illini head coach. After a ten-win season in 2024, Illinois is seen as a sleeper to make the College Football Playoff. They are a major underdog to make it to the CFP. Odds at the time of writing, according to FanDuel, have them at +520 to make the playoffs. That places them sixth in the Big Ten.
The Illini would also need to buck some trends to finish 2025 higher than 12th in the AP Poll. To begin with, the team has never had back-to-back ten-win seasons. Each team in the top 16 of the final AP Poll of 2024 had at least ten wins. They would also most likely need to make the playoffs. Of the top 12 teams, 11 of them made the playoffs, with Ole Miss finishing 11th. This will be a tall task for Bielema, but it is something that could be achieved.
Illinois has returning talent
The Illini rank first in the Big Ten and fourth nationally in returning production, according to Bill Connelly of ESPN. They bring back 78 percent of their returning production on offense, which is second in the conference. They also have 72 percent of their returning production on defense, the best in the Big Ten. The returning production on the offense starts with Luke Altmyer. The redshirt senior quarterback will be playing in his third season in Champaign, and is coming off a stellar campaign in 2024. He threw for 2,717 yards with 22 touchdowns and just six interceptions. Further, he ran for 217 yards and four trips to the end zone.
The offensive line also brings back most of the group from last year, led by J.C. Davis, an All-Big Ten left tackle. While the team is replacing some skill position players, many of the backups who will now start got solid playing time in 2024. Further, they bring in Hudson Clement and Justin Bowick in the transfer portal. Bowick had 319 yards and three touchdowns in his final two games at Ball State in 2024 and could be a major playmaker for the Illini offense this upcoming year.
Bielema's defense returns J.C. Davis, one of the best edge rushers in the conference. He finished with 74 tackles, eight sacks, 15.5 tackles for a loss and three forced fumbles. The team sees the return of Matthew Bailey and Xavier Scott, both solid defensive backs who will make this a top-quality defense. Still, with all the returning production, the team faces an uphill battle to be ranked higher than number 12 at the end of the year.
The schedule is challenging
Illinois is projected to have a top-50 strength of schedule at the end of the season. While not one of the most difficult in the nation, it is also not a cake walk. They open up the season on a Friday night against Western Illinois, which will be a win, but then they have to travel to Duke. Duke has a top-level defense in the ACC, and with this game being on the road, it could easily be a loss for the Illini. This should be at least two wins in the non-conference schedule, but if the new parts of the offense have not come together by week two, it will be a 2-1 start for the team.
In the conference schedule, the team avoids some of the biggest names in the conference. Penn State, Oregon and Michigan are not on the schedule this year for Illinois. They still have some difficult games. On September 20, they will travel to face Indiana. Indiana did lose plenty of production to the NFL Draft and transfer portal after their run to the playoffs, but this is still a top 25 team on the road. The next week, the Illini will suit up at home against the USC Trojans.
USC will improve on defense, and Lincoln Riley always produces a solid offense. This means consecutive difficult games for the team. After facing Purdue, the team then hosts Ohio State, one of the top teams in the country, and one that will already be battle-tested. Illinois will also face Washington and Wisconsin on the road, while hosting Rutgers and Maryland in conference play.
Can Illinois reach ten wins?
Ten wins will be difficult, and that is the requirement to finish inside the top 12 in the final AP Poll. The team's history also does not bode well for a move up in the rankings. Beyond just never having back-to-back ten-win seasons, the school has historically fallen in the rankings when ranked in the pre-season AP Top 25. The last time they were ranked in the AP Top 25 in the preseason was in 2008, when they started 20th and would finish the season unranked.
The last time Illinois started this high in the poll, they started 11th in 1990, but would finish 25th. Since 1970, the team has started inside the top 25 and finished with a higher rank just once. That was in 1989 when they started 22nd and would finish 11th.
It is going to require ten wins for Illinois to make it higher than 12th, and most likely a playoff berth. Two major games on the schedule will decide if this can happen. Assuming Illinois does not fall to Duke in non-conference play, they would need wins over both Indiana and USC. Those games come in consecutive weeks, and the Indiana game is on the road. If Illinois can come out with two wins, they have a chance to make it to ten and to a CFP game.
If not, they will likely finish outside the top 12 in the final poll. The odds are stacked against them to pull off such an accomplishment, and while they have solid returning production, it will not be enough to make it to the ten-win marker. Without ten wins, the chance of being ranked higher than 12th in the AP Poll is slim.
