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Week 3 of the 2023 college football season promises some intriguing matchups. There are no head-to-head matchups between ranked teams, but there are a lot of games where a ranked team is traveling on the road to square off with an unranked team in their home building. A series of these games will kick off at noon on Saturday. One of those duels is between the 15th-ranked Kansas State Wildcats and the Missouri Tigers.
Kansas State football has gotten off to a fairly nondescript start to their season. They've handled their business, beating Southeast Missouri State and Troy by a combined score of 87-13. Missouri, meanwhile, is 2-0 as well, but had to work a little harder to get their two wins. They breezed by South Dakota in Week 1 to win by a final score of 35-10, but were barely able to squeeze by against Middle Tennessee State. Missouri held on by a score of 23-19 in that one.
This game should be a close one. These are both the best teams each squad has seen to date. Vegas is projecting this to be a three-point game with the edge going to Kansas State. How it goes is anyone's guess. But that's why making bold predictions for this game is necessary.
2) Kansas State gives up over 125 receiving yards to Luther Burden III
Kansas State's best player a year ago was likely their running back Deuce Vaughn. Vaughn had 1,553 yards rushing and added 42 receptions for 378 yards on the ground. He was a great college running back. But he wasn't the highest-drafted player from last year's Kansas State team. That would be edge rusher Felix Anudike-Uzomah. The second highest-drafted player in the 2023 NFL Draft out of Kansas State was cornerback Julius Brents.
Losing Brents, a super long and athletic corner, could really hurt Kansas State in this matchup because Missouri wide receiver Luther Burden III is a problem. Burden was regarded as the fifth-best recruit in the 2022 recruiting class, according to ESPN. He was the best offensive recruit in the class. The East St. Louis native turned down a number of big schools, including Alabama, Georgia, the wide receiver factory known as Ohio State, and a litany of others to stay close to home and play for the Missouri Tigers.
Burden's freshman season wasn't jaw-dropping, but he played a lot as a freshman. He finished that season with 375 yards. He's begun his sophomore season with a bang, however. Against South Dakota, Burden hauled in seven receptions for 96 yards and a touchdown. Against Middle Tennessee State, Burden one-upped his Week 1 performance by bringing in eight receptions for 117 yards.
Mizzou sophomore receiver Luther Burden III is an absolute elite WR prospect.
He's got rare skills with the ball in his hands but he also got top-tier elevation and ability to dominate at the catch point. Rare profile.pic.twitter.com/wjq9GMwRWx
— Luca Sartirana (@SartiranaLuca) September 10, 2023
Playing a full-time role against a secondary down their best corner from a year ago, this looks like the spot for a true Luther Burden III breakout game. He's averaging over 100 yards per game so far this season. He keeps it going and adds another 125 this week.
1) Missouri covers the +3.5 Vegas spread
Taking the points with a home underdog is a great strategy when betting college football, especially when the home dog has a little bit of breathing room. Ideally, the spread would be a touchdown or so, but a field goal could be all the distance Missouri needs. Kansas State looks to be the better team, but they've had trouble in the nonconference before. Though they thrashed Missouri last season by a score of 40-12, they did lose to a very good Tulane a week after by a score of 17-10 at home. In 2020, Kansas State dropped a game at home to Arkansas State.
These games haven't always been gimmes for Kansas State. Missouri is better than they were a year ago, and Kansas State, while still very good, lost a lot of pieces from last year's team. Kansas State football should still win this game. But it'll be close. Close enough for Missouri to cover a field goal.
