Michigan will visit Michigan State in Week 9, as the two are set to meet for the 118th time. The game has provided memorable moments. It has been 10 years since the infamous Surrender Cobra moment, and this game could have more infamous moments in Paul Bunyan Trophy lore.
Michigan is now 5-2 on the year and 3-1 in conference play. After a win over New Mexico, Michigan lost to Oklahoma 24-13. They would then win three straight before struggling against USC. Michigan allowed USC to score with just 14 seconds left in the first half to be down 14-7 going into the halftime break. The second half would be a disaster, as Michigan lost the game 31-13. The Wolverines would rebound the next week. Michigan dominated Washington on the way to a 24-7 victory.
Meanwhile, Michigan State is 3-4 on the year, but does not have a win in conference play. They have now lost four straight games, including last week. Michigan State was down 21-10 going into the halftime break against Indiana, and then the weather delayed the game. Michigan State struggled after the delay. They managed just three points, on a field goal with 30 seconds left in the game. Indiana won the game 38-13.
Aidan Chiles still has a solid game against a stout Michigan defense
The Michigan defense is one of the best in the nation. They are 14th in the nation in opponent points per game. They are also 16th in opponent yards per game. Still, the passing defense has been the weak spot overall. Michigan allowed 215.1 yards per game through the air, 48th nationally.
Aidan Chiles has been solid this year. He has passed for 1,262 yards and ten scores this year. He does have three interceptions, but has not thrown a pick in the last two games. Meanwhile, he has ten passing touchdowns, while also running for five more scores.
He has had some struggles this year. Against Nebraska, he passed for just 85 yards with two picks, but did run in two touchdowns. Then, the next week, he faced UCLA and passed for just 66 yards with a rushing touchdown. Chiles rebounded last week. He passed for 243 yards with a touchdown while also running for another 48 yards. That gave him a QBR of 94.9, his highest of the year.
Michigan has a stout defense, but Chiles is going to continue this play. The question is, will it be enough to get Michigan State the win?
Bryce Underwood scores on the ground
The Michigan offense has been fairly average this year. They are 54th in the nation in points per game, but are also 38th in the nation in yards per game. The team has struggled in the red zone and on third down. The passing game is ranked 91st in the nation in yards per game, but the running game is 55th in the nation in yards per game.
Bryce Underwood is going to use his legs in this game. The freshman quarterback has been solid overall. He has passed for 1,440 yards and seven touchdowns, although he does have two interceptions. Still, he has run for another 202 yards and three scores. He is coming off a good game, passing for 230 yards and two scores while running for 25 yards.
The Michigan State defense has not been good. They are 115th in the nation in opponent points per game while sitting 75th in opponent yards per game. Still, it is the pass defense that has hurt them. The Spartans are 102nd in the nation in opponent passing yards per game while sitting 115th in the opponent passing yards per attempt. Underwood has shown he can throw well when given time and a weaker defense, which is what he will have here.
Regardless, at some point, the Spartans will have good coverage. This is going to result in Underwood taking off, and he is going to score on the ground in this game as well, helping the Michigan offense to a potential victory.
Michigan with through the defense
The Michigan State offense has struggled this year. They are 81st in the nation in points per game but 113th in yards per game this year. The run attack has been nearly non-existent, sitting 107th in the nation, while the pass game is 93rd. Michigan is not a team that will build a msssive lead early, so the Spartans will stay balanced throughout the game, but still not move the ball.
The Wolverines have been great on defense, as noted earlier, but there are a few key areas where they are great. Michigan is solid at getting pressure on the quarterback, and has a 7.09 percent sack rate this year, 41st nationally. This means that Chiles will be under pressure in this game. They are also solid on third down, allowing just a 38.14 percent conversion rate. Michigan State is going to struggle to get short-yardage situations on third down. Not only is their run attack bad, but Michigan is 11th in the nation against the run.
The biggest issue will be turnovers. Michigan State is 95th in the nation in turnover margin, and gives the ball away 1.2 times per game. Michigan is seventh in turnover margin and averages two takeaways per game this year. While they are one of the best in the nation in taking the ball away, the team does not have a defensive touchdown.
At the time of writing, odds provided by FanDuel have Michigan as a 14.5-point favorite in the game. Michigan is going to be up just eight late in the game. Michigan State will be attempting to drive the field to tie the game up, and that is when the big turnover will happen. Not only will it be a turnover to ice the game, but the Wolverines are going to bring it back for a touchdown, winning and covering the spread in the rivalry match-up.
It may have been ten years since Michigan lost in the final seconds to their rival, which resulted in the Surrender Cobra meme, but they get revenge in this game in a big way. Michigan leads the all-time series 74-38-5; they get their 75th win against the Spartans here.
