A likely playoff spot is on the line in the American Championship Game as North Texas visits Tulane. Tulane got the top spot in the conference due to having a higher ranking in the College Football Playoff rankings. Then, North Texas won a tie-breaker over Navy due to a head-to-head win. Now, the two face off on Friday night in New Orleans.
North Texas is 11-1 on the season, and went 7-1 in conference play. They opened the season 5-0, before a 63-36 loss to South Florida. Since then, the Mean Green have been dominant. They have won six straight games, all of them by 14 or more points. The only game they did not score over 50 points was against Navy, but North Texas still won the game 31-17.
Meanwhile, Tulane is 10-2 this season. They opened up the season 3-0, including a win over Duke, which is playing for the ACC title. They would fall 45-10 to Ole Miss before three more wins. Still, the Green Wave stumbled on the road, falling to UTSA 48-26. Since then, they have won four straight, but it has not been as dominant as North Texas. Tulane had a tight win over Memphis, but the team has still been solid.
This is a unique situation for both teams as well. North Texas head coach Eric Morris is leaving for Oklahoma State at the end of the season. Meanwhile, Jon Sumrall has accepted the job at Florida. Furthermore, this is essentially a playoff play-in game. The champion is projected to be one of the highest-ranked conference champions. If Virginia loses to Duke in the ACC Title game, it may be the 11-seed, but if not, likely a 12-seed and a road playoff game.
Jake Retzlaff moves the offense on the ground
The Tulane offense has been solid this year. They are 50th in the nation in points per game while sitting 33rd in yards per game this season. The passing game has been solid, currently 43rd in FBS, while the rush is 50th. This has all been led by quarterback Jake Retzlaff. He was a late addition to the team, transferring from BYU after abruptly leaving the program.
The junior quarterback has passed for 2,717 yards this season with 14 touchdowns. He also has been intercepted just six times. Still, it is his legs that make him special. Retzlaff has run for 561 yards this year and 14 touchdowns. He has rushing touchdowns in ten of 12 games this year, including two last week against Charlotte, and four earlier in the season against Duke.
The North Texas defense has not been strong this year. They are 72nd in the nation in opponent points per game while also ranking 79th in opponent yards per game. They have been strong against the pass, sitting 12th in opponent yards per game, but they are 133rd in opponent rushing yards per game. In the loss to South Florida, Byrum Brown, USF quarterback, showed the game plan for defeating the North Texas defense. He passed for 245 yards and three scores, but also ran for 82 yards and two touchdowns. Retzlaff is going to use his dual-threat nature to attack the North Texas defense, accounting for three touchdowns in this game.
Drew Mestemaker shows he is a star
Meanwhile, the North Texas offense has been stellar this season. They are the best in the nation in points per game and yards per game. They are 26th in the running game and second in the nation in the pass. The Mean Green are led by freshman quarterback Drew Mestemaker.
The freshman has passed for 3,835 yards this season and 29 touchdowns. He leads FBS in passing yards while also being tied for fourth in passing touchdowns with 29 this season. He has also run for five touchdowns on the campaign. Mestemaker has been great as of late. In the last three games, he has passed for 1,1136 yards with passing touchdowns and a rushing touchdown.
Meanwhile, the Tulane defense has been average this season. They are 42nd in FBS in opponent points per game and also 60th in opponent yards per game. They are 29th against the run but also 113th against the pass. Last time Mestemaker faced a defense that struggled against the pass, like Tulane, was against Charlotte. In that game, he threw for 608 yards and four touchdowns. It will not be over 600 yards in this game for the Mean Green QB, but he will be over 300 yards and multiple touchdowns.
The Mean Green are playoff-bound
There are going to be a few key factors that will decide this game. The first is going to be in the red zone. North Texas has dominated on offense in the red zone. They score 95.31 percent of the time in the red zone, which is second in FBS. The defense has not been as solid, sitting 76th nationally. Still, Tulane is not great on defense in the red zone either, sitting 71st, while only converting 88 percent of the time on offense, 44th. That difference is going to play a major role in this game.
The second major factor is going to be turnovers. Tulane is 33rd in the nation in turnover margin, giving away the ball 1.2 times per game, but creating 1.6 turnovers. North Texas is fourth in turnover margin, giving away the ball one time per game, but also forcing 2.1 turnovers per game.
North Texas is 10-2 against the spread this campaign, and has covered in six straight games. Tulane is just 5-7 against the spread, and has covered just twice in the last seven games. They also failed to cover the only time they were the underdog this season. Odds at the time of writing, provided by DraftKings, have North Texas as a 2.5-point favorite. They cover in this one in ease, and will be heading to the College Football Playoff.
