The No. 17 Illinois Fighting Illini will host No. 1 Ohio State this Saturday. In reality, this game seems to be a mismatch on paper. Ohio State is a 14.5-point favorite, with a good defense allowing just 5.0 points per game. And if we look, everything seems to fall in favor of Ohio State.
But if you have watched the past few games, you must know that college football doesn't always follow the script. Looking closely at Ohio State's perfect record and dominant statistics reveals several cracks Illinois can exploit.
The Buckeyes have not faced any challenges throughout the season; the opponents were easy to read, and they have been able to build their leads early on. On the other hand, Illinois has an offense that perfectly matches Ohio State's defensive weakness.
How Illinois can exploit Julian Sayin's lack of experience
Ohio State's biggest vulnerability sits at the most important position. Julian Sayin has put up good numbers, but he's never played from behind this season. Every game has been comfortable from start to finish.
Illinois needs to score early and force Sayin into uncomfortable situations. Make him throw into tight windows. Make him lead a comeback drive. The Buckeyes quarterback has never had to do it, and Saturday might not be the day he figures it out.
The competition Ohio State has faced makes this even more concerning. They haven't seen a quality quarterback all season. Arch Manning struggled against them. Minnesota's Drake Lindsey didn't challenge them. Luke Altmyer is averaging around 262 passing yards per game, more than any quarterback Ohio State has faced. This is uncharted territory for the Buckeyes defense.
Luke Altmyer's Heisman-caliber season could be Ohio State's nightmare
Ohio State's defense looks dominant in the stats, but film shows real problems in coverage. Their linebackers struggle against intermediate passing attacks. Against Washington, Arvell Reese and Sonny Styles allowed 5-of-6 completions for 59 yards when targeted. Minnesota hit 5-of-5 passes for 50 yards against those same linebackers, according to PFF.
Illinois runs two-tight end packages perfectly suited to attack this area. Altmyer excels at intermediate routes and reading linebackers in coverage. If Ohio State's linebackers drop into zone, Altmyer will carve them up. If they blitz, he's got the awareness to find the hot route.
The Buckeyes' defense turns the screws tighter the shorter the field gets, but they're easier to score on outside the red zone. Illinois should relentlessly attack the middle of the field, stay out of third-and-long situations, and avoid getting stuck inside the 20, where Ohio State suffocates offenses.
Illinois has the perfect weapon
Luke Altmyer is having a season nobody is talking about. He's completed 73.6% of his passes for 1,573 yards and 12 touchdowns with zero interceptions. Against USC, he went 20-of-26 for 328 yards. Against Purdue, he hit 19-of-22 for 390 yards with an 86.4% completion rate.
Ohio State has faced nothing like this. While they've dominated weak quarterbacks, Altmyer is playing well. He doesn't turn the ball over. He makes quick decisions. He's accurate on deep shots and precise on short routes.
Illinois' passing attack averages 37.0 points per game, ranking 12th nationally. They've shown explosive capability with four completions of 40+ yards against Purdue and multiple 60+ yard plays against USC. Ohio State's one defensive weakness? Explosive plays. Illinois has the weapons to exploit it.
The trap game setup
Saturday's kickoff creates perfect upset conditions. Early road starts are tough on any team, especially one that might be looking ahead to bigger games.
Illinois is fighting for its playoff lives. For Ohio State, it's just another road game in a long season.
“If we've ever needed you in my entire coaching career… we got number one rolling into town, and they're a very good football team. But we need to show up early and put an environment in that stadium that's fun to play in,” Head coach Bret Bielema told his fans.
Nobody believes Illinois can win. Ohio State players are told how great they are, while Illinois gets completely dismissed. That creates a dangerous dynamic. If a team is set on top and given hopes that no matter what, they will only win the game, it sets the team's performance on the surface level, and Illinois can grab the opportunity to dive deep and take the win on their end.
Bielema emphasized the historic opportunity to his team.
“Special memories are created from moments, what you do with that moment creates the memory. I am excited for you guys, our fans… these moments just do not happen that often.”
Illinois has the motivation, the quarterback, and the home crowd. What they need now is to execute their game plan and force Ohio State into uncomfortable situations it hasn't faced all season.
