Two top-25 teams in the Big Ten are set to meet on Saturday as Ohio State visits Illinois. This will be the 104th meeting between the two schools, as they play for the Illibuck trophy. Ohio State has won the last nine, including the vacated victory in 2010. The last time Illinois defeated Ohio State at home was in 1994, but this Illinois team is solid, and it provides a space for bold predictions on this game.
Ohio State is one of the top teams in the nation and is currently ranked No. 1 in the AP Poll. The team is also 5-0 on the year. After an opening win at home against Texas, the Buckeyes took wins over Grambling and Ohio. The team would then hit the road for the first time, opening up Big Ten play with a 24-6 road victory over Washington. Last time out, Ohio State defeated Minnesota 42-3.
Meanwhile, Illinois is 5-1 on the year. After opening the season 3-0, the Illini were dismantled by Indiana on the road, losing the game 63-10. Still, the team rebounded. Illinois then hosted USC. It was a tight first half, with the Illini up 14-10. Illinois would build a lead, going up 31-17 in the fourth quarter. After a USC touchdown, Illinois was driving but turned over the ball, leading to a USC touchdown drive. Regardless, the Illini had time to make the comeback. Illinois took a 34-32 victory on a field goal as time expired. Then, last week, the team defeated Purdue 43-27 on the road.
Luke Altmyer keeps it close early
Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer has been great this year. He currently leads the 27th-ranked passing attack in terms of yards per game and fourth in yards per pass attempt. The fifth-year senior has completed 109 of 148 passes for 1,573 yards and 12 touchdowns. He has also not been intercepted this year. He has also passed for over 325 yards in each of his past two games.
Meanwhile, Ohio State has been solid on defense this year. The Buckeyes are number one in the nation in opponent points per game while sitting fourth against the pass. They did struggle some with Demond Williams of Washington. Williams was able to complete 18 of 22 passes for 173 yards. The game was also tight early on. It was just 7-3 going into halftime, and 14-6 going into the fourth quarter. That is when Ohio State pulled away.
Altmyer is a better quarterback than Williams. Further, he takes care of the ball well. As he has yet to throw an interception, Ohio State is also 112th in the nation in interception rate. If the Illini quarterback can take care of the ball, they will be able to keep it close for a while.
Caden Curry makes the big play
While Altmyer will keep this game close to begin, at some point, the Ohio State defense will come away with a big play that changes the game. The defense has been the strength of the Buckeyes this season. The team is the best in the nation in opponent points per game, in opponent yards per game, and the best in the red zone. Further, they are 16th against the run and fourth against the pass.
One of the best aspects of the defense is the pass rush. Ohio State is third in the nation in getting to the quarterback. Kayden McDonald and Arvell Reese have both been solid. McDonald is more of an interior lineman, has three sacks on the year, and a forced fumble. Reese is a linebacker who has three sacks and two pass breakups.
Still, the big playmaker is Caden Curry. He is tied for the team lead in total tackles, while also leading the team in tackles for a loss. Curry also has a pass breakup from his edge rushing position, while coming away with five sacks on the year. He will be a consistent presence in the backfield in this game.
Illinois is 125th in the nation in protecting its quarterback from the sack. Altmyer has been sacked 19 times this year, including seven times against Indiana. Curry is going to get into the backfield and make a big play against Altmyer. It may be a sack to end a drive or knock Illinois out of field goal range. It could also finally be enough pressure to force Altmyer to throw his first interception of the year.
Defense rules the day
The quality of the defense of Ohio State is already well known, but Illinois has a solid defense of its own. While Illinois is 85th in the nation in opponent points per game, much of that is due to facing Indiana. Illinois is 50th against the run and 15th in the nation in turnover margin this year. Of the 144 points that Illinois has given up this year, 95 of them came against Indiana and USC.
Indiana is seventh in the country in points per game and yards per game. USC is first in both categories. Meanwhile, Ohio State is 53rd in FBS in points per game and 48th in yards per game. The team is also 91st in turnover margin. That is going to keep this game close for a time.
Regardless, Ohio State has yet to allow more than nine points in a single game this year, and that was against Ohio. At the time of writing, odds provided by FanDuel have the over-under of this game set at 49.5 points. The under has hit in three of the four FBS games for the Ohio State game this year. This game will also go under the 49.5 point total.
