The College Football Playoff committee will decide the 12 teams that get to play for a National Championship on December 7th. The top-five ranked conference champions will get automatic bids, while the next seven top-ranked teams will join the field as at-large bids. Heading into this Tuesday night's rankings, Miami remains the top-ranked team from the ACC, but things are sure to move around after Georgia Tech lost to Pitt in Week 13. With this movement, there is a chance the ACC misses out on the playoffs entirely.
The ACC conference championship game scenarios are one of the most complex in the nation. Six different teams still have a chance to play for the ACC Title. Meanwhile, only three of those teams were ranked in the latest CFP rankings, while five sit in the AP Top 25 this past week. Only Miami and Virginia rank above James Madison, Tulane, and North Texas, though, meaning the playoff committee could have some difficult decisions to make regarding the top-ranked conference champions.
There is a situation that could leave the Sun Belt and the American Conference having higher-ranked champions and the ACC sitting at home.
What ACC Champions would get in without much debate?
The obvious one is Miami. They have been the top-ranked team in the CFP rankings from the ACC. Still, their path to the title game is very slim. Miami needs to win, plus have SMU win, with losses from Duke and Virginia. If they do make the ACC Championship and then defeat their opponent, which would likely be SMU, Miami will get in.
Virginia is also in a solid position. They have just two losses on the season and were ranked 19th in the latest CFP rankings. If they win against Virginia Tech, they will play for the ACC title, and a win will get them into the playoffs.
SMU and Pitt could also make some arguments to be in if they win the ACC title. SMU gets into the championship game with a win and would be 10-3 on the season if they win the ACC. They also have a major win over Louisville, which James Madison lost to this year. Pitt would cause much more of a debate. They lost to West Virginia, which is currently 4-7, plus lost to Louisville. James Madison could easily be the pick over Pittsburgh if they win the ACC.
The Group of Five needs to do its job
The first step is for the American conference to produce a top-caliber champion. The best case is for Tulane to be that champion, considering they are currently ranked in the CFP rankings. Tulane has just two losses on the year, falling to Ole Miss early in the season and then again to UTSA. Still, they have a win over an ACC team. Tulane defeated Duke earlier in the year, 34-27. If Tulane wins this weekend over Charlotte, they will play for the American Conference Championship. A win in that game should secure a playoff spot.
If they do lose, and the loss is to North Texas in the title game, the Mean Green still have a strong argument. The only loss of the year for North Texas is to USF, but USF also lost to Miami, which hurts the overall resume when compared to the ACC. The best case to keep the ACC out of the playoffs is Tulane to win the American.
Then, James Madison cannot slip up. The Dukes are 10-1 and have clinched a spot in the Sun Belt Championship. That makes this weekend's game against Coastal Carolina have no impact on the standings. Still, JMU cannot slip up against Coastal and risk knocking themselves out of the playoff hunt. They will then play the winner of Troy and Southern Miss from Week 14 for the Sun Belt. A win will give them a 12-1 record, with the only loss being to Louisville.
The perfect chaos scenario
James Madison will be the cause of the chaos scenario, with some help from the ACC. To begin with, JMU ranks 26th currently in SP+, which is a metric the committee takes into account. Only two teams rank ahead of them out of the ACC, which are Miami and SMU. Pittsburgh is currently 29th, while Virginia is 31st. Meanwhile, North Texas is 18th, and while Tulane is 53rd, the committee has already shown them favoritism. Still, they will need help to earn a second Group of Five bid.
It starts with Tulane. Tulane has a win over Duke, which helps in comparison. If they can win the American, they will be the top-ranked team from the Group of Five, meaning it will be a comparison between James Madison and the ACC Champion.
JMU would lose the head-to-head to SMU based on the Louisville game, while also losing to Miami and Virginia based on current standings. They would have a strong argument against Pittsburgh. Both teams lost to Louisville, while Pittsburgh would have one of the worst losses among playoff teams, falling to West Virginia.
If Duke somehow makes the title game and then wins, James Madison would get in with ease. Not only has Duke lost to Tulane, but they would be a five-loss champion. The same could be said for Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech will likely be a three-loss team after facing Georgia this weekend. If they do defeat Georgia, the scenario changes, but if they are at three losses, with one to Pitt, James Madison likely gets the bid.
It would be a chaotic scenario for the ACC to miss the playoffs, but it is possible. James Madison has shown that it deserves a shot, and many teams in the ACC have yet to prove that. This all may be a moot point soon, as ESPN and the CFP discuss expanding the playoffs in the future. Until then, fans in the state of Virginia just hope one of the teams gets in, either through UVA winning the conference or through chaos and the Dukes making a playoff run.
