There is now just one week left in the College Football season. The top five-ranked conference champions get a guaranteed trip to the College Football Playoffs. After Week 13, a few spots have been decided in conference title games, and it is time to break down all the scenarios for each conference in their title game.
The American
After East Carolina fell to UTSA in Week 13, just three teams are competing for the two spots in the American Conference Championship game. South Florida was also eliminated from contention with Tulane's victory over Temple. This leads Tulane, North Texas, and Navy to contend for the final spot.
If Tulane wins over Charlotte, they will be playing in the conference championship, even with a three-way tie. The three-way tiebreaker is first decided by CFP ranking, and Tulane is only one of the three teams currently ranked. They can still get in with a loss, but would need North Texas or Navy to lose as well. Tulane would still have the tie-breaker if they are ranked higher in this Tuesday's CFP rankings.
North Texas is also in a win-and-in situation. Due to the head-to-head win over Navy, a three-way tie would place Tulane in the conference title game due to playoff ranking, and North Texas would then beat out Navy, having to play the conference title game on the road.
Navy needs to beat Memphis on Thanksgiving and get help with either Tulane or North Texas falling in Week 14. They could host the conference title game if they win and both Tulane and North Texas suffer losses.
ACC
The ACC is the most complex of all the conference title scenarios, with six teams still alive for a berth in the title game.
Virginia and SMU are in the driver's seat. Virginia gets in with a win over Virginia Tech in Week 14. SMU goes to the conference title with a win on the road against Cal. Virginia can still make the title game with a loss, combined with losses from SMU, NC State, and Syracuse. SMU would need losses from Pitt, Duke, NC State, and Virginia.
Pittsburgh needs a win over Miami to have a chance to make the ACC Championship, but also needs a loss by either Virginia or SMU.
Georgia Tech saw its chances wane after a loss to Pitt. They have just one path to the ACC Championship, needing both Virginia and SMU to lose this weekend.
Miami and Duke also have scenarios in which they can make it to the conference title game. Miami has multiple complex scenarios, but the simplest is to win, plus SMU wins, with losses from Duke and Virginia. Meanwhile, Duke gets in with a win, plus losses for Pitt and SMU, or a win, plus losses for Pitt, Virginia, and NC State.
Big 12
Only four teams remain in contention in the Big 12. BYU controls its own destiny. They get in with a win over UCF this week. They also clinch with a loss for Arizona State. Finally, they can make the title game with a Texas Tech loss and wins for Arizona State and Utah.
Meanwhile, Texas Tech is also in a win-and-in scenario. If they defeat West Virginia, they will be heading to the Big 12 Championship. They also make it in with a loss by Arizona State.
Arizona State still has a chance, but it needs a lot of help. They have to win over Arizona in Week 14 to start. With the win, they have three paths to get in. The first is losses by both BYU and Utah. The other two require a loss by BYU or Utah, plus a loss by Texas Tech.
Utah has the longest odds to make it in. They not only need to defeat Kansas, but also need a Texas Tech loss, and wins by both BYU and Arizona State.
Big Ten
The Big Ten has seven different conference title game scenarios, but the easiest is the most likely. If both Indiana and Ohio State win, they will face off in the Big Ten Championship. Indiana and Ohio State both clinch with wins.
Indiana can still make the conference title game with a loss, but it would also require Ohio State to beat Michigan and Washington to defeat Oregon.
Ohio State can also get in with a loss, but would need Purdue to defeat Indiana and Oregon to lose to Washington.
Oregon has to win to make the conference championship, but it must be combined with a Buckeye loss.
Finally, Michigan is still alive. They must beat Ohio State to begin with, and then need either Purdue or Washington to pull an upset. If Michigan, Purdue, and Washington all upset their Week 14 opponents, Michigan and Ohio State will rematch in the Big Ten Championship.
Conference USA
Conference USA is one of the easiest conferences to figure out for its title game. Three teams, Jacksonville State, Kennesaw State, and Western Kentucky, all currently have one conference loss. Jacksonville State and Western Kentucky will face off in Week 14, with the winner going to the Conference USA Conference Championship.
If Kennesaw State beats Liberty on the road, it will join the winner of Jacksonville State and Western Kentucky. If Kennesaw loses, it will depend on the game between Jacksonville State and Western Kentucky. Jacksonville State has the tiebreaker and gets in with the Kennesaw loss, but Western Kentucky will be out regardless of the Kennesaw result with a loss.
MAC
Five teams are still fighting for two spots in the MAC. Still, only one of the five teams fully controls its own destiny. Western Michigan is in with a win over Eastern Michigan. They also get in if Miami (OH) loses, or if Central Michigan loses, plus Buffalo, Bowling Green, or Kent State takes a loss.
Miami (OH) gets in one of three ways. They have to win over Ball State in Week 14, and then get a loss from Western Michigan, Buffalo, or Toledo.
Toledo qualifies if they win and Miami loses. They also get in with a win, plus Eastern Michigan and Ohio losing. Finally, they can get in with a win, and Western Michigan, UMass, Ohio, and Northern Illinois all fall.
Finally, Central Michigan is in with a win and Western Michigan plus Ohio loss, or a Western Michigan plus Buffalo and Northern Illinois loss. They could face Western Michigan if they win, Miami loses, and either Northern Illinois loses or both Ohio and Kent State lose.
Technically, Ohio can still qualify, but they need both them and Central Michigan to win, plus Miami (OH), Buffalo, and Kent State to lose, and Ohio wins the tiebreaker over Central Michigan based on SportSource rankings.
Mountain West
Currently, seven teams are mathematically alive for a spot in the Mountain West Conference. Three of those teams would need chaos to happen. Fresno State, Hawaii, and Utah State can only have hope if they are tied for second in the conference, which would require UNLV, New Mexico, and Boise State to all lose, while all three of those teams win. The six-way tie would be broken by computer rankings.
San Diego State qualifies with a win over New Mexico, or with losses by Boise State and UNLV.
New Mexico needs to defeat San Diego State and have Boise State lose. Boise State needs to defeat Utah State and have New Mexico lose. If both New Mexico and Boise State win, it will go to a computer tiebreaker with two of San Diego State, New Mexico, and Boise State qualifying.
Finally, UNLV can still qualify with a win and losses by New Mexico State and Boise State. If UNLV, New Mexico, and Boise State all win, then it will be a four-way tie for first, and decided by a computer tiebreaker.
SEC
The SEC is down to just four teams competing for two spots. Texas A&M is the top team in the conference and controls its own destiny. They are in with a win over Texas, or losses by Alabama and Ole Miss.
Alabama needs a win to stay alive. They then need Texas to beat Texas A&M or Mississippi State to beat Ole Miss. If a three-way tie with Ole Miss and Georgia arises, it will come down to SEC opponent winning percentage, which is currently owned by Alabama.
Georgia is done with SEC play. If Auburn or Texas wins, they will go to the SEC title game. They are also still alive based on the three-team tiebreaker.
Ole Miss has the most difficult path. They need to win the Egg Bowl and have both Texas and Auburn pull upsets. They also could win the three-team tiebreaker, but have the longest odds to do so.
Sun Belt
The Sun Belt is the easiest of the conferences to determine, and the last conference with divisions. James Madison has won the Sun Belt East. Meanwhile, Southern Miss visits Troy in Week 14. The winner will face James Madison in the Sun Belt Conference Championship, while the loser will be out.
