It is the 120th meeting between Vanderbilt and Tennessee. Vanderbilt is looking to win ten games for the first time in program history, while Tennessee is looking to ruin their season. As the two face off, it is time to make bold predictions on the game.
The Commodores received good news ahead of the game, as Vanderbilt and head coach Clark Lea agreed to a six-year contract extension. The Dores come into the game at 9-2, and are still in the conversation for the College Football Playoff. After starting the season 5-0, they fell to Alabama on the road. They would then win the next two before a three-point loss ot Texas on the road as well. Since then, they have won over Auburn and Kentucky.
Meanwhile, Tennessee is 8-3 on the campaign. They opened up 2-0 before an overtime loss to Georgia. They would then win three more before falling to Alabama 37-20. After a win over Kentucky, Tennessee fell to Oklahoma at home by six points. They have since defeated New Mexico and Florida.
Tennessee has won six straight in the series, but two of the wins have been vacated. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt has not won since 2018 and has not won in Knoxville since 2017.
Joey Aguilar shows he is a top quarterback in the SEC
The Tennessee offense has been stellar this year. They are seventh in the nation in points per game while sitting in seventh in yards per game. The run game is ranked 40th in FBS, while the passing game is ranked ninth. The passing game has been led by Joey Aguilar. He has passed for 3,145 yards and 23 touchdowns this year. He has also found the endzone three times on the ground. Still, he has ten interceptions and has been sacked 13 times this season.
Aguilar has not been at his best in his last two games. In the game against New Mexico, he completed 17 of 23 passes, but for just 204 yards with one touchdown through the air and one on the ground. He also threw two interceptions. Against Florida, he passed for just 204 yards and a touchdown. Still, he had a 94.9 QBR in that game and will continue to perform well in this one.
Vanderbilt is just 47th in opponent points per game while sitting 63rd in opponent yards per game. They are one of the best against the run, sitting 22nd in FBS, but they are 123rd against the pass. Expect Aguilar to throw for over 250 yards and a touchdown in the game against Vanderbilt.
Diego Pavia makes a Heisman case
The Vanderbilt attack has also been great this year. They are eighth in FBS in points per game while sitting 15th in yards per game. They are solid on the ground, sitting 47th in yards per game, while sitting 14th in passing yards per game. This is all led by Heisman candidate Diego Pavia.
Pavia has passed for 2,924 yards and 26 touchdowns. He has also run for 661 yards and eight touchdowns. The quarterback has been intercepted six times and sacked 17 times this year. Pavia has also been great as of late. In the last three games, he has thrown for 1,226 yards and 11 touchdowns, while being intercepted just once. Meanwhile, he has run for 173 yards and three scores on the ground.
The Tennessee defense has not been good this year. They are 85th in the nation in opponent points per game while sitting 77th in opponent yards per game. They are 45th against the run and 112th against the pass. Pavia is going to have a huge game against Tennessee, with over 350 yards passing and another 75 running, while he accounts for four touchdowns in the game.
Vanderbilt breaks the losing streak
This game is going to come down to third-down conversions. Tennessee has been good on third downs this year, converting at a 45.76 percent rate, which is 24th in FBS. Still, they have struggled on defensive third-down conversions, sitting 81st on defense. Vanderbilt is better, though. Vandy is fifth in the nation in third-down conversions, while sitting 86th on defense. Vanderbilt will continue to convert well on third down, which will change the outlook of this game.
Taking care of the ball will also play a major part in this game. Vanderbilt gives up the ball just once per game, which is 24th nationally. Meanwhile, Tennessee is at 1.4 times per game and has been worse in the last three games.
Odds at the time of writing, provided by DraftKings, have Vanderbilt as a three-point underdog. Vanderbilt is 8-2-1 against the spread this year. Meanwhile, Tennessee is just 5-6 against the spread this year, and just 2-3 at home. Not only is Vanderbilt going to cover, but make a case for the College Football Playoff, as they take the win in this game.
