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The second week of the College Football Playoff (CFP) rankings has arrived. There hasn't been much change at the top, particularly in the top-7. This includes No. 5 Washington. The Huskies, led by Michael Penix Jr., engaged in a shootout with Caleb Williams and USC last Saturday, resulting in a 52-42 victory for Washington. However, the significance of this victory lies in the fact that it was a win over another ranked opponent, which is crucial for Washington's aspirations of reaching the playoff.
Heading into the matchup against USC football, the Trojans held the No. 20 spot in the CFP rankings. However, they are now entirely out of the rankings. This development doesn't bode well for the Huskies' football team, which still relies on strong performances from their past opponents to make their wins appear significant. Nonetheless, they still have one of the best wins in the country against Pac-12 rival Oregon when they were ranked No. 8 nationally.
Washington football's schedule favors them
The good news for Washington football is that several favorable factors lie ahead, boosting their chances of making the playoff, potentially moving up from No. 5 to at least No. 4, if not higher. They have two remaining games against ranked opponents, all within the Pac-12 conference, and these matchups will play a significant role in their quest to reach the conference title game.
In the upcoming Saturday game, they will face No. 18 Utah at home, followed by a visit to Corvallis to challenge No. 12 Oregon State, concluding with the rivalry game against unranked Washington State at home. This stretch of games will be the first test for Washington's bid to enter the top-4.
Washington football must win the Pac-12 Championship
If Washington football can successfully navigate this challenging stretch, they will secure a spot in the Pac-12 Championship Game. This likely means a rematch against Oregon, hinging largely on Washington's performance as there are other external factors beyond their control that they must hope for.
Most anticipate a top-6 showdown in the Pac-12 title game if Oregon maintains its winning streak and remains just behind the Huskies at No. 6 in the rankings. If Washington manages another victory over the Ducks, they will have triumphed against five ranked teams, including a top-10 win over Oregon for the second time. Such an impressive record should be sufficient to secure a place in the top-4, especially if they remain undefeated. However, there are other considerations that this Washington football team has to be concerned about.
Washington football needs a top-4 team to lose, maybe more than once
Even if all the aforementioned scenarios were to unfold favorably for the Huskies, they still have to contend with teams ranked ahead of them, such as Ohio State, Georgia, Michigan, and Florida State. Many believe that the Michigan and Ohio State clash will eliminate one of them from the top-4. However, if both teams remain undefeated until their matchup, it will be a showdown between two top-4 teams. The committee's decision on whether to retain both teams in the top-4, especially if the defeat is narrow, will be pivotal.
The winner will advance to the Big Ten Championship game, potentially against No. 22 Iowa, mirroring the scenario from the previous year, that then allowed both the undefeated Wolverines and the one-loss Buckeyes into the playoff. The key question centers on how the committee values the Ohio State/Michigan and Washington/Oregon matchups, with potential rankings of No. 1 versus No. 3 and No. 5 versus No. 6.
To secure a guaranteed place in the top-4, either Michigan or Ohio State need to suffer a loss before their matchup, offering Washington or any other team a clearer path. Alternatively, they must rely on Georgia losing one of their remaining games against No. 9 Ole Miss, No. 13 Tennessee, or an entertaining Georgia Tech team that continues to find ways to win.
For Washington football, a Florida State loss in some form would be the most beneficial scenario. However, the Seminoles' remaining schedule, which includes rivals Miami and Florida, as well as North Alabama, appears unlikely to yield a loss. Florida State's best chance of a defeat might occur in the ACC Championship Game against the current No. 11 Louisville team.
