It is the NCAA Lacrosse final four as Penn State and Duke meet in Philadelphia. It is time to continue our NCAA Lacrosse odds series with a Penn State-Duke prediction, pick, and how-to-watch.
Penn State started this year with its sights set on the Big Ten Title. In the way was Johns Hopkins, Michigan, and Maryland, but coach Jeff Tambroni has confidence in his solid defensive unit, a great face-off man, and quality attack. They began the season with an easy win against Lafayette before falling at Villanova. Then, Penn State win on a run, winning their next four games including one over Cornell. In conference play, Penn State opened with a three-goal loss to Maryland, but rebounded, beating Ohio State, Johns Hopkins in double overtime, Michigan, and Rutgers.
It was enough to get them the top seed in the Big Ten Tournament and a first-round bye. The bye would not help as Penn State fell 17-15 to eventual champions Michigan in the semi-finals. Still, Penn State made the NCAA Tournament as the five seed. They would defeat Princeton and Army each by one goal to set up this match-up with number one Duke.
Duke started their season with two wins but then stumbled at Jacksonville with a one-goal loss. They rebounded though, knocking off four top 20 teams in a row with Penn, Syracuse, Loyola, and North Carolina. Duke would then go on to win on the road at number one ranked UVA, but fall at number two ranked Notre Dame in the next game. They would beat UVA a second time and after defeating #19 Syracuse would clinch the ACC title. The ACC does not hold a post-season tournament for lacrosse, so with UVA beating Notre Dame at the same time, Duke was the ACC champion. In the NCAA Tournament, top-seeded Duke held off a pesky Delaware squad by one goal before handling Michigan with ease.
Here are the Penn State-Duke NCAA Lacrosse odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NCAA Lacrosse Odds: Penn State-Duke Odds
Penn State: +4.5 (-128)
Duke: -4.5 (+104)
Over: 25.5 (-115)
Under: 25.5 (-105)
How To Watch Penn State vs. Duke
TV: ESPN2
Stream: ESPN+
Time: 12:00 PM ET/ 9:00 AM PT
*Watch NCAA Lacrosse games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Penn State Could Cover The Spread
The biggest concern for Penn State going into this game will be senior defensive captain, Jack Posey. Posey is the leader of the Nittany Lion defense that ranked 15th in the nation in goals allowed this year. He was also the key player in the man-down defense that was fifth in the nation on the season. Posey was hurt in the game against Army and did not return. If he is out for this one, a major piece from the Penn State defense will be missing, as the All-American Honorable Mention player was the cog to keep the defensive engine rolling.
If Posey cannot go, second-team all-American goaltender, Jack Fraycon may have to do even more than he has all year long. Fraycon was great all year, leading his team with a 57.2% save percentage which was good for fourth in the nation. His 210 saves, which was good for 14 saves per game, ranked him sixth nationally, and the Sophomore goalie ranked 12th in goals against average.
Leading the offensive side of the ball will be third-team all-American TJ Malone. Malone was a threat to dodge at any moment and scored 33 goals this year. When the defense slid towards him, he was great at finding the open man, dishing out 32 assists to lead the team in that regard as well. Malone did have a few games in which he made some costly mistakes, but still, he is one of the best in the nation at attack. Getting the ball to him early will be the job of face-off specialist Chase Mullins. Mullins only won 46.8% of his face-offs this year but went on a major run against a solid face-off man at Army. He will be hoping to repeat that performance on Saturday.
Why The Duke Could Cover The Spread
Duke can score quickly and in bunches. They are led by Tewaaraton Award finalist Brennan O'Neill. The junior attackman grabbed first-team All-American honors for his work this year at attack. O'Neill was second on the team with 51 goals, but it was his work-dropping assists that separated him. He has 40 assists this year giving him 91 points, the most in the nation, and the second-most points per game. The recipient of many of those assists was Dyson Williams, who scored 57 times this year and was named an honorable mention All-American.
Not only does Duke have a potent attack, but they also have the best face-off man in the nation. Jake Naso was named first-team All-American for his work in the faceoff circle this year. He won 62.9% of his faceoff on the season, often flipping the ball to himself, which allowed him to pick up 145 ground balls. His faceoff-winning percentage was sixth in the nation, but his ability to create quick breaks the other way right off the face-off is what makes him special.
On the defensive end, Duke ranked 13th in the nation in goals per game. The defensive unit is great at limiting possessions and other teams' shots. The stand out for them is Kenny Brower, who was named a first-team All-American this year. Brower caused 18 turnovers this year as teams regularly stayed away from his side of the field.
Final Penn State-Duke Prediction & Pick
Penn State just beat a top-ranked defense. Army was ranked second in the nation in goals allowed per game. There is one major difference though. Army did not put up those stats against the like of UVA, Syracuse, and Notre Dame. Duke did. Even if Penn State can score when they have the ball, having the ball is going to be an issue. Duke does not committ a lot of mistakes on offense. Then, when they score, their face-off game is so strong, they will likely be getting the ball back. That will be the difference in this game. Duke is going to control the ball because of the face-off play, and win this one. Still, 4.5 goals are far too many to lay here. Expect a lower-scoring game, and Penn State to cover.
Final Penn State-Duke Prediction & Pick: Penn State +4.5 (-128)
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