The New England Patriots will look to avoid dropping to .500 when they face the New York Jets on Sunday. The Week 11 matchup is arguably the biggest game between the two division rivals in over a decade as both are over .500 and currently in the AFC playoff picture. Ahead of the Patriots-Jets game, we’ll be making our Patriots Week 11 predictions.
While both teams appear to be good at the moment, the Patriots carry a 13-game winning streak against the Jets going into Sunday's game. Both teams are also coming off the bye. Patriots coach Bill Belichick has done well following the bye in his 23 seasons, going 15-7 in the 22 other years.
With that in mind, here are four bold Patriots predictions for Sunday's game.
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4. Mac Jones and the Patriots' offense will look competent
OK, maybe I'm continuing to beat a bit of a dead horse here. It feels like all season that I've predicted that Jones and the Patriots' offense will turn the corner in their upcoming game. I might just keep doing it, even if I continue to be wrong until the end of the season.
However, there's some evidence that the Patriots could perform well – or at least well enough – on Sunday. Just look at their matchup against the Jets a few weeks ago. Early on in that game, Jones and the Patriots were able to string along some plays that led to scoring drives or put them in good field position. They had a 15-play drive that ended up with a field goal in which Jones threw for two first downs and ran for another on third down. He pass and ran for a first down on third down two drives later.
Things began to change for the Patriots' offense after the pick-6 Jones threw was negated. They ran more conservatively to close the first half. But even then, the Patriots were aggressive and successful in their opening drive of the second half. They ran a more up-tempo offense that resulted in a six-play, 62-yard touchdown drive.
New England went back to playing conservatively for the remainder of the game as they had good field position that set them up for field goals a few times and Zach Wilson couldn't stop throwing interceptions. But they showed enough in that game to at least leave some room for optimism. The most important thing to note is that they were without center David Andrews in that game and he'll be back on Sunday. Jones was sacked a career-high six times in Week 8 against the Jets, likely because Andrews' veteran presence was missed, especially on blitzes between the tackles.
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I don't think the Patriots will necessarily light up the scoreboard and I wouldn't be shocked if they still had some red zone issues, too. But I could see them scoring into the high 20s with Andrews, Damien Harris, and potentially DeVante Parker all back in the mix after the bye week.
3. A player on the Patriots' defensive front will have a big game – and it won't be Matthew Judon
It's easy to think that Judon will have a big game on Sunday. He leads the league in sacks with 11.5 this season and will go up against a Jets offensive line that isn't too great.
Yet, I think it'll be someone else that has a big day. Deatrich Wise Jr. and Josh Uche are in a good position to make a big impact on Sunday. Just three weeks ago against the Jets, Wise had eight pressures though he didn't have a sack. He'll likely go up against Jets left tackle Duane Brown again on Sunday, giving him another opportunity to get to Wilson and possibly sack him this time.
Uche will also likely be rushing off Wilson's blindside. Even though it was against a porous Indianapolis Colts offensive line, Uche had a career-high three sacks in the Patriots' last game before the bye. He also had a sack against the Jets a week prior.
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Judon will probably get some extra attention on the other side of the offensive line, especially as the Jets are still figuring out how to play without versatile offensive lineman Alijah Vera-Tucker. Not only will Judon probably get extra attention, the Patriots might not use him a blitzer straight up if the last game is any indication. Several times Judon was used as a spy to help keep Wilson behind the line of scrimmage. It worked as the Jets young quarterback only took off for a run once, rushing for just two yards on the play.
2. Damien Harris will be the Patriots' leading rusher
Rhamondre Stevenson has really burst onto the scene in recent weeks. He's recorded at least 60 rushing yards four of the last five games. He's also made plays as a receiver this season, posting 35 receptions for 227 yards.
Arguably Stevenson's most impressive game this season came against the Jets when he rushed for 71 yards and had 72 receiving yards. Eighty-three of his rushing yards in that game came after contact, too, showing how much New England relied on him that day.
But Stevenson's done much of his damage with Harris out of the lineup due to injury or illness. Harris is coming two weeks of rest and was a full participant at practice this week. The return of Andrews also bodes well for him as a more power-gap rusher.
Harris also saw a great deal of success rushing against the Jets last season. He had 62 yards and a touchdown in the first matchup against them and ran for 106 yards and two touchdowns in the second matchup.
Damien Harris making the Jets defense look like high-schoolers 😤pic.twitter.com/ir1Lc2Iazm
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPointsApp) September 19, 2021
1. The Patriots win comfortably
New England is a slight favorite in Sunday's game, even after winning in comfortable fashion on the road against New York three weeks ago. But if its offense is going to play well, it stands a good chance to beat anyone with the way its defense is playing, especially against New York.
Give me the Patriots to win, 27-13.
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