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What are the New England Patriots going to look like in 2024?
Will they take a step forward under their new regime, entering into a new era with a surprisingly effective season? Or will they struggle mightly once more, losing whatever edge Bill Belichick brought to the team on the defensive side of the ball to instead head face-first into a free fall, with fans focusing more on draft odds than playoff positioning?
On paper, this isn't a very good team, but one question has to be asked: do the Patriots want to be a good team? If so, they have a few options at their disposal to at least give it a shot, as they are a better team at multiple key positions across the board, but if they don't? Well, that might just be okay, too, as few fans should expect a wildcard Super Bowl berth when a team's blue chip young quarterback isn't even guaranteed to start as a rookie.
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1. Drake Maye starts less than nine games
Heading into the offseason, the Chicago Bears decided to sign veteran journeyman Brett Rypien back in March before the draft, made it clear he was at best their QB2 heading into the fall, and ultimately released the 28-year-old when he was outplayed by second-year signal caller Tyson Bagent.
Now to some, this strategy was a curious one; sure, everyone expected the Bears to draft Caleb Williams first overall, and eventually, he was going to take over as QB1, but why not sign a veteran like, say, Jameis Winston to come in and hold things down as a bridge until the USC star was ready for action? That pipeline strategy worked for everyone from Patrick Mahomes to Jordan Love, and yet, the Bears decided to throw their new franchise player into the fire to let him grow against live action.
And yet, the Patriots decided to do the exact opposite and sign former draftee Jacoby Brissett to hold things down until their own QB1 of the future, Drake Maye, is ready for action.
At the time, this was a solid enough strategy, as no one knew for sure who the Washington Commanders were going to take at pick number two, and the biggest knock against Maye was his footwork, which can take some time to get right at the NFL level, but what about the present? Maye looked just as good, if not better, than Brissett during the preseason, and considering the Patriots aren't expected to be good in 2024, why not allow him to take his lumps when they don't matter to be ready for when they do?
Are the Patriots not comfortable with the supporting case they have under contract, with Maye having the potential to pick up some Sam Darnold-esque bad habits during his formative years? Or do they just have too much respect for Brissett and want to give him a fair shake in this his ninth professional season and second run with the Patriots? Either way, it's hard to imagine the Patriots will allow Maye to start more than half of their games this fall, even if fans would like nothing more than to see what he can do over a full 17-game run.
2. The Patriots finish last in the AFC East, and that's okay
In 2023, the Patriots were bad. They had one of the worst offenses in the NFL, a pretty good defense that actually kept them in more games than they should have been in, and a coach who that, while incredibly respected, lost his locker room as, to paraphrase Matthew McConaughey, he kept getting older but the players stayed the same age.
In 2024, some of those issues have been remedied; Jerod Mayo has replaced Belichick, Mac Jones is backing up Trevor Lawrence, and the Patriots were able to retain some solid players like Josh Uche and Kyle Dugger, but there are cracks just under the surface that make it hard to imagine that a fourth finish in the AFC East isn't a foregone conclusion, especially if a number of things don't perfectly break in the team's favor.
Now granted, much of this is by design; normally, teams don't trade away an elite talent like Matthew Judon for a future third-round pick a few weeks before the season if they are looking to win now and if you look over the offseason, there are plenty of other moves that seem more focused on being less good now than they could be, like opting out of the Brandon Aiyuk sweepstakes, or deciding against giving the ball to Maye right out of the gates.
If the Patriots wanted to get better right away, double their win total, and make a run – no matter how unlikely – at a wildcard spot, they likely could have, but instead, Mayo and company appear dedicated to the slow but steady build to something bigger, with their win total in 2024 less important than how much specific players grow heading into the future.
If key players like Uche, Maye, Ja'Lynn Polk, and Marcus Jones are able to take a step forward and look really good, then hey, maybe the Patriots will take a step forward next year and pay up for some immediate upgrades at positions of need, as they will have the most valuable team-building asset in the NFL, a quarterback on a rookie-scale contract. But if things look dire in Foxboro, well, Maye will still be cheap until 2027 – assuming he's the guy – and there's always 2026 to shoot for contention once more.
