It will be a showdown in Central California on Saturday at Valley Children's Stadium as New Mexico State battles Fresno State. We're in Central California, sharing our college football odds series and making a New Mexico State-Fresno State prediction and pick.
New Mexico State lost 30-24 to the Liberty Flames last weekend. They left 17-9 at halftime but fell apart in the fourth quarter. Unfortunately, they allowed Liberty to score with 1:12 left.
Parker Awad was awful in this one, going just 9 for 22 with 158 yards passing with two touchdowns while also taking four sacks. Seth McGowan rushed 15 times for 76 yards while catching three passes for 25 yards and a score. Meanwhile, Mike Washington ran 14 times for 61 yards. Monte Watkins had one catch for 64 yards and a touchdown.
New Mexico had 18 first downs while going 3 for 15 on third downs. However, the defense allowed 473 total yards. The offense turned the ball over once and could not force any turnovers. Sadly, they also committed nine penalties.
Fresno State defeated the Sacramento Hornets 46-30. They led 18-3 after the first quarter and 25-10 at halftime. Mikey Keene was inconsistent, going 24 for 35 with 358 yards passing with two touchdowns and two interceptions while taking one sack. Additionally, Maik Sherrod rushed just 12 times for 54 yards and two touchdowns while catching three passes for 19 yards. Mac Dalena was sensational with seven catches for 235 yards and a touchdown, while Jalen Moss had six catches for 76 yards.
Fresno State finished with 22 first downs while going 8 for 17 on third down. Also, they finished with 513 total yards. The Bulldogs were sloppy, turning the ball over three times and allowing one sack. However, the defense made up for it by forcing three turnovers.
Fresno State leads the head-to-head series 15-6. Moreover, they won the last showdown 25-17.
Here are the College Football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: New Mexico State-Fresno State Odds
New Mexico State: +20.5 (-115)
Moneyline: +860
Fresno State: -20.5 (-105)
Moneyline: -1600
Over: 47.5 (-115)
Under: 47.5 (-105)
How to Watch New Mexico State vs. Fresno State
Time: 10:30 PM ET/7:30 PM PT
TV: truTV
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why New Mexico State Could Cover The Spread/Win
New Mexico has not had a good offense at all through the air. Unfortunately, they have not been able to air it out and get any net yards through the air.
Awad has only 195 yards and two touchdowns with one interception. That amounts to 97.5 yards per game. Unfortunately, that will not get the job done. The Aggies need to run the ball more. Therefore, McGowan must get more touches. McGowan has rushed 26 times for 163 yards and two touchdowns, averaging 6.3 yards per carry. Thus, it's critical to give him some opportunities in the open space. If Awad can get the ball to anyone, Watkins needs to be the guy who catches passes.
The defense has been solid. Buddha Peleti has two solo tackles and 1.5 sacks. Also, Da'Marcus Crosby has tallied two solo tackles and one interception.
New Mexico will cover the spread if it can establish a strong running game and make things easier for Awad. Then, the defense must establish a pass rush and force Fresno State to make mistakes.
Why Fresno State Could Cover The Spread/Win
Fresno State has been good on offense. However, turnovers have been the biggest reason why the Bulldogs have not accomplished their potential for greatness.
Keene has passed for 593 yards, three touchdowns, and four interceptions. Unfortunately, the mistakes can mess things up for the Bulldogs. Sherrod has been bad on the ground. So far, he has rushed 36 times for 78 yards, two touchdowns, and a measly 2.2 yards per carry rate. But Dalena has been the star of this offense, with 13 catches for 302 yards and one touchdown through two games. Meanwhile, Moss has caught 12 passes for 173 yards while still looking for his first score.
The defense must do more. So far, they have just one sack, and it came from Ezra Christensen. Cam Lockridge has tallied three solo tackles and one sack. Likewise, Camryn Bracha has added seven solo tackles and one interception.
Fresno State will cover the spread if the offense moves the chains and avoids turning the ball over. Then, they need to generate some pressure and get a sack that helps force turnovers.
Final New Mexico State-Fresno State Prediction & Pick
Neither of these teams is the greatest. Ultimately, Fresno State should have the advantage and find a way to win this one by a large margin. But they also tend to get sloppy. Because of this, it is difficult for them to cover the spread or make the most of their chances. Their offense is good enough to score quickly but bad enough to give the ball to the other team. New Mexico State is objectively a bad team. It gives us reason actually to trust Fresno State more in this one.
Final New Mexico State-Fresno State Prediction & Pick: Fresno State: -20.5 (-105)
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