The Denver Broncos (3-7) travel to take on the Carolina Panthers (3-8). Kickoff is scheduled for 1 pm ET. Below we continue our NFL odds series with a Broncos-Panthers prediction and pick.
Denver has lost two straight games and currently sits three games back from the Wild Card. The Broncos are 3-7 against the spread while nine of their ten games have gone under. They are coming off a 22-17 overtime loss to the Raiders.
Carolina has lost three of its last four games and currently sits two games back in the NFC South. The Panthers are 5-6 against the spread while seven of their 11 games have gone under. They are coming off a 13-3 loss to the Ravens.
Here are the Broncos-Panthers NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Broncos-Panthers Odds
Denver Broncos: -1.5 (-110)
Carolina Panthers: +1.5 (-110)
Over: 36.5 (-108)
Under: 36.5 (-112)
Why The Broncos Could Cover The Spread
Denver has been one of the most frustrating teams in the NFL this season. Prior to the season, the Broncos were a hot pick to upset the Chiefs in the AFC West. The hope was that the addition of Russell Wilson would finally give Denver enough offensive firepower to match their elite defense. That hope has not come to light. The Broncos have maintained an elite defense (third in points allowed) but their offense has been abysmal. Denver averages just 14.7 points per game – the fewest in the NFL.
If the Broncos' offense scored 18 points in regulation of every game this season, they would hold a 9-1 record. That is an incredible testament to how poor this offense has been. That being said, things have looked better in recent weeks. Quarterback Russell Wilson has thrown for at least 245 yards in each of the last three weeks – although he's thrown just two touchdowns to two interceptions over that span. Wilson will need to continue improving if Denver wants to cover as road favorites. He's thrown for two touchdowns in a game just once this year and has failed to throw a score in three games.
While Wilson has a tough matchup against Carolina's frisky secondary, the Broncos should be able to find success on the ground. Despite losing Chase Edmunds to injured reserve and cutting Melvin Gordon III, running back Latavius Murray has been solid in limited work. He projects as the lead back with those two out of the picture and is in a nice spot against the Panthers' 27th-ranked rush defense.
The biggest factor in a Broncos cover, however, is their defense. Denver has been arguably the best defensive team in the league this year. While they are below average in forcing turnovers, they are incredibly sound defensively. Denver is 14th in rush defense and third in pass defense. The Broncos give up the third-fewest yard per game and are third in scoring defense. They should be in a good spot to limit Carolina's offense and give Wilson and company a chance to cover.
Why The Panthers Could Cover The Spread
The Panthers are clearly in a rebuild mode despite playing in a weak NFC South. The Panthers have a horrific offense as they are 25th in scoring After trading away their starting running back and wide receiver, Carolina will have started their third quarterback of the season following this week. Despite ranking 20th in points allowed, their defense has been solid – notably holding the Giants, Buccaneers, and Ravens to under 20 points. Their defense will be key. Regardless of what their offense does if the Panthers can contain a middling Broncos offense they should be in a good position to cover as home underdogs.
The Panthers will start their third quarterback of the season when Sam Darnold takes the helm on Sunday. Darnold was hit or miss last year as the starter. In 12 games he threw for 2,527 yards and nine touchdowns. Darnold is a sneaky threat with his legs as well having rushed for 222 yards and five touchdowns last year. It remains to be seen how much this impacts their offense as a whole, but it is surely good news for start wide receiver DJ Moore. In 12 games with Darnold as his quarterback, Moore averaged nearly six catches and 71 yards per game. That would be a major improvement over his production this year. For the season Moore averages under four catches and 45 yards per game.
Final Broncos-Panthers Prediction & Pick
The Broncos shouldn't be favored on the road against anyone but it's hard to put faith in the Panthers. Instead, I love the under here. Two good defenses and two bad offenses are a recipe for a low-scoring game. With these two teams, even an alternative total as low as 25.5 (+440) is enticing.
Final Broncos-Panthers Prediction & Pick: Under 36.5 (-112)
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