The Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to the “Big Easy” to take on the New Orleans Saints in an intense NFC South divisional showdown. It's time to get wild as we dive into our NFL odds series and make a Buccaneers-Saints prediction and pick.
The Bucs defeated the Dallas Cowboys 19-3 on Sunday Night Football behind a great defense and a relentless rushing attack. However, parts of the victory felt like a loss, as they lost wide receiver Chris Godwin to a hamstring injury and Donovan Smith to a hyperextended right elbow. Subsequently, coach Todd Bowles indicated that neither injury is serious, and both players will treat their injuries to determine if they can play this week.
The Saints rallied from a 26-10 deficit at the start of the fourth quarter to shock the Atlanta Falcons 27-26. Amazingly, they accomplished this behind a strong effort by Jameis Winston, who went 23 for 34 with 269 yards and two touchdowns, and Tayson Hill, who rushed four times for 81 yards and a touchdown. Michael Thomas also contributed with five receptions on 57 yards and two touchdowns, while Jarvis Landry added seven receptions for 114 yards.
The Bucs are 0-4 in the last four regular-season contests against the Saints. Additionally, Tampa Bay is 2-8 over 10 games at the Caesars Superdome, including three losses in a row. The Bucs lost 36-27 last season while also falling 9-0 at home. Moreover, the Bucs have lost by at least six points in all their defeats to the Saints in New Orleans over the last decade.
Here are the Buccaneers-Saints NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Buccaneers-Saints Odds
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: -2.5 (-110)
New Orleans Saints: +2.5 (-110)
Over: 43.5 (-118)
Under: 43.5 (-104)
Why The Buccaneers Could Cover The Spread
The Bucs are one of the best teams in the NFC. However, they always struggle against the Saints. Tom Brady has an 0-4 record against the Saints since he came to Tampa. Also, he has averaged 259.25 passing yards with a passer rating of 71.5. Brady has thrown six touchdowns and eight interceptions in those four outings. Thus, it is safe to say that the Saints have owned the best quarterback of all time.
Leonard Fournette has also struggled in these matchups. He has 23 carries for 65 yards over four contests. Likewise, he is averaging 2.8 yards-per-touch with an average yard total of 16.3. Fournette also has yet to score a touchdown against the Saints.
Mike Evans has not had one 100-yard game against the Saints. Also, he has eight receptions over four games. Two of those receptions resulted in touchdowns. However, Evans must help his team do more, especially against a defense that does not allow much room for running. He produced two receptions on four targets for 48 yards and a touchdown in the Halloween loss last season.
Ultimately, it will come down to the little things. The Bucs allowed six first downs from penalties in the loss last season. Also, they committed 11 total penalties compared to the two by New Orleans. Committing three turnovers did not help their cause, either. It allowed the Saints to control the clock and grind the game down at their discretion.
The Bucs will cover the spread if Brady, Fournette, and Evans can all play better and execute their game plan. Significantly, Tampa Bay must cut down on the penalties and not turn the ball over.
Why The Saints Could Cover The Spread
The Saints are not better than the Bucs overall. However, they dominate the head-to-head matchup for some reason. Now Sean Payton is gone, and Dennis Allen has replaced him as the head coach. Will it change things?
Winston started against his former team once, and it took place on Halloween last year. He went 6 for 10 with 56 yards and a touchdown. Now, he looks to improve upon that. Alvin Kamara has 57 carries for 204 yards and two touchdowns over four games. Additionally, he has 13 receptions for 57 yards. The Bucs do not allow much on the ground, but the Saints can dissect them through the short pass.
Thomas has not faced the Bucs since the playoff game two years ago, where the Bucs stunned the Saints in the dome. The Saints will rely on him to regain his groove and target the Tampa secondary.
The Saints will cover the spread if Winston takes care of the ball and Kamara and Thomas execute on their chances. Additionally, New Orleans must remain disciplined and avoid the penalties that have doomed their opponents.
Final Buccaneers-Saints Prediction & Pick
Vegas is likely taking the Bucs because of the Payton factor. Yes, he is no longer the coach. However, the Bucs will be facing the same defense, and Allen led that defense. Expect the Saints to come hard at Brady and force him into mistakes while stuffing the ground game. New Orleans should be the favorite until Tampa proves otherwise.
Final Buccaneers-Saints Prediction & Pick: New Orleans Saints: +2.5 (-110)
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