The Los Angeles Chargers will take on the Denver Broncos in an AFC West duel. It's time to continue our NFL odds series and make a Chargers-Broncos prediction and pick.
Both of these teams have a legitimate shot at making the postseason, both as a wild card team or as the winner of the AFC West. A win for the Chargers would set them up to make a run at the Kansas City Chiefs, with a Week 15 matchup between the two teams looming large. The Broncos don't have much room for error left, as a loss in this game would essentially cripple their playoff chances. With a win, Denver hangs around in the division while becoming a legitimate threat for a wild card seed. There's plenty of importance in this game, so let's move into the pick.
For more insight on the Chargers-Broncos matchup in Week 12, listen below:
Here are the odds for the Chargers-Broncos game, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Chargers-Broncos Odds:
Los Angeles Chargers: -2.5 (-115)
Denver Broncos: +2.5 (-105)
Over: 47.5 (-112)
Under: 47.5 (-108)
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Why The Chargers Could Cover The Spread
Los Angeles is coming off of a narrow win against the Pittsburgh Steelers, a performance that proved the Chargers have one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL. Quarterback Justin Herbert looked downright fantastic in that contest, and the running game was firing on all cylinders against one of the better defenses in the league. Denver has been strong on defense overall this season, but they've been mediocre against opposing rushing attacks. The Broncos allow 4.4 yards per carry to opposing running backs, a figure that ranks in the bottom ten in the league. Denver has already allowed huge rushing days to Najee Harris of the Steelers and D'Ernest Johnson of the Browns, so it's easy to see Austin Ekeler taking over this contest.
While the Chargers haven't been the most consistent team against the spread, their numbers are solid enough. Both of these teams are 5-5 ATS on the year, but Los Angeles clearly has the advantage when we look at this matchup. The Chargers have earned themselves a 3-1 record against the spread on the road this season, and Denver has gone 2-3 ATS when playing at home. The Broncos are also an abysmal 2-4 against the spread when playing other teams in the AFC West.
Why The Broncos Could Cover The Spread
Heading into this matchup, Denver's main concern has to be slowing down Justin Herbert. Los Angeles's rushing offense has been below-average all season long, but their passing attack has been fantastic. Luckily, the Broncos have absolutely shut down opposing passers this season. Head coach Vic Fangio's defense is allowing a mere 218 yards per game, a top ten number in the NFL. Denver also recently shut down the Dallas Cowboys, one of the best offenses in the entire league.
Offense certainly hasn't been the Broncos' specialty this season, but things should be a little easier here. The Chargers have been the absolute worse rush defense in the NFL, allowing a whopping 145 rushing yards per game. They also allow 4.7 yards per rush, one of the worst numbers in the league. Los Angeles has hung their hat on their pass defense this season, but there's reason to believe that it won't be quite as strong here. The Chargers will probably be missing two starters in their defensive backfield in this contest, as cornerback Asante Samuel Jr. and safety Alohi Gilman both haven't practiced this week.
Final Chargers-Broncos Prediction & Pick
This game should be close, but getting the Chargers at less than a field goal is a steal. Lock in Los Angeles.
Final Chargers-Broncos Pick: Los Angeles Chargers: -2.5 (-115)
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