The Miami Dolphins will head to Ohio to take on the Cincinnati Bengals as the two AFC teams meet at Paycor Stadium. Thursday Night Football is here, and it’s time to look at our NFL odds series and make a Dolphins-Bengals prediction and pick.
The Dolphins are coming off a 21-19 win over the Buffalo Bills in a game that included an injury, a return, and even a ‘Butt Punt’. Regardless, Miami found a way to win. Tua Tagovailoa completed 13 of his 18 passes for 186 yards and a touchdown with no interceptions while leaving the game with an injury before returning. Initially, many believed it to be a concussion, but the Dolphins and Tagovailoa insisted it was a back injury. Chase Edmunds rushed six times for 21 yards and two touchdowns.
Meanwhile, Jaylen Waddle caught four passes for 102 yards, and Tyreek Hill caught two passes for 33 yards. The Dolphins converted 11 of their 18 third-down attempts and went 2 for 3 on fourth down. Also, they sacked Josh Allen four times.
The Bengals defeated the New York Jets 27-12 at the Meadowlands for their first victory of the season. Joe Burrow completed 23 of his 36 passes for 275 yards, three touchdowns, and no picks. Additionally, Samaje Perine rushed nine times for 47 yards, while Joe Mixon rushed 12 times for only 24 yards. Tyler Boyd caught four passes for 105 yards and a touchdown, while Ja’Mar Chase caught six passes for 29 yards and a touchdown. Also, the defense generated four turnovers.
The Dolphins lead the all-time head-to-head series 17-7 and are 9-5 in games played in Cincinnati. Also, the teams last met on December 6, 2020, with the Dolphins defeating the Bengals 19-7 at Sun Life Stadium. The Bengals have won the last two games at Paycor Stadium. Tagovailoa played in the previous matchup between the teams, completing 26 of his 39 passes for 296 yards and a touchdown. However, this is Joe Burrow’s first game against the Dolphins.
Here are the Dolphins-Bengals NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Dolphins-Bengals Odds
Miami Dolphins: +3.5 (-102)
Cincinnati Bengals: -3.5 (-120)
Over: 47 (-110)
Under: 47 (-110)
Why The Dolphins Could Cover The Spread
The Dolphins are hurting, but they are 3-0 and have playmakers all over the field. Tagovailoa has a passer rating of 117.8 with 925 yards, eight touchdowns, and two interceptions. Edmunds and Raheem Mostert are doing all right through the first three contests. Edmonds has rushed for 79 yards and two touchdowns, and Mostert has 78 yards while still searching for his first touchdown. Additionally, Waddle has 342 yards with three touchdowns, and new addition Hill has 317 yards with two touchdowns.
The Dolphins rank eighth in the NFL in points-per-game with 27.7 and 16th in points allowed per game with 21.3. Also, Miami ranks 13th in yards per game and second in passing yards. The Dolphins have not controlled the time of possession, ranking 22nd. Likewise, they have not generated much on defense, ranking 22nd in sacks and 21st in interceptions.
The Dolphins will cover the spread if Tagovailoa can have a productive game and get the ball to his receivers. Moreover, the Dolphins must move the chains well and keep Burrow off the field. Their defense must get off the field and prevent Burrow from tearing them apart.
Why The Bengals Could Cover The Spread
The Bengals have stumbled out of the gate but hope to get back to .500 with a team loaded with playmakers. Burrow has 812 yards passing with six touchdowns and four interceptions. Now, he looks to add to his stats and lead the Bengals to another win. Mixon has rushed for 163 yards on a measly 2.8 yards-per-carry rate. Thus, expect him to find ways to improve those marks and get the ground game going and capture his first touchdown of the year. Perine has 53 yards on a 4.8 yards-per-carry rate with six receptions, 55 yards, and a receiving touchdown. Likewise, he needs to do his part to support an offense that has not performed at its best. Chase has 21 receptions for 212 yards and two touchdowns so far. Additionally, Tee Higgins has 13 receptions for 191 yards. Boyd has 10 receptions for 155 yards and two touchdowns.
The Bengals rank 10th in points per game with 21.3 and ninth in points allowed per game with 18.3. Also, Cincinnati ranks 16th in yards-per-game but has been a stronger passing team (1oth in passing) than a rushing team (20th in rushing). The Bengals are the best team in the NFL at time of possession, and it could work in their favor. Likewise, they are eighth in third-down conversion rate.
The Bengals will cover the spread if they avoid falling behind early and Burrow gets in a groove. Likewise, the defense must contain Hill and Waddle and not let the Dolphins pass all over them.
Final Dolphins-Bengals Prediction & Pick
The Dolphins are undefeated. However, the Bengals are AFC Champions, and this is a Thursday night game on their turf. The Bengals are the favorites, but this game will be closer than anyone anticipates. It could go down to a last-minute field goal.
Final Dolphins-Bengals Prediction & Pick: Miami Dolphins: +3.5 (-102)