The Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8) visit the Tennessee Titans (7-5) on Sunday. The game kicks off at 1 pm ET. Below we continue our NFL odds series with a Jaguars-Titans prediction and pick.
Jacksonville enters Sunday's game having just been blown out by Detroit. The Jaguars have an outside shot at the playoffs but would need to win the AFC South to get there. Jacksonville is 4-8 against the spread while 50% of their games have gone under.
Tennessee returns home following back-to-back losses to the Eagles and Bengals. The Titans lead the AFC South and are currently the fourth seed in the AFC. Tennessee is 8-4 against the spread while 67% of their games have gone under. This will be the first of two meetings between the teams this season. Tennessee took both games last season by 18 and 20 points.
Here are the Jaguars-Titans NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Jaguars-Titans Odds
Jacksonville Jaguars: +3.5 (-114)
Tennessee Titans: -3.5 (-110)
Over: 40.5 (-118)
Under: 40.5 (-104)
Why The Jaguars Could Cover The Spread
Jacksonville looked the part of an AFC spoiler after winning two of their first three games to open the season. They followed that up with five straight losses and have since gone 2-2 over their last four games. That being said, Jacksonville finds themselves as respectable underdogs against the AFC South leader thanks to their balanced offense.
If the Jaguars are going to cover as road underdogs, they'll need to follow a similar blueprint that Cincinnati and Philly used the last two weeks. Both teams attacked Tennessee through the air with Cincy putting up 270 passing yards and Philly dropping 386 passing yards. Tennessee features a formidable defense but they can be beaten through the air. They rank just 20th in yards per attempt allowed and have given up over 270 passing yards in four of their five losses this season. That bodes well for a Jaguars' passing attack that has really come into its own in recent weeks.
Putting aside last week's meltdown that saw Trevor Lawrence leave the game with an injury (he later returned), the Jaguars' pass attack has developed well over the course of the season. Last year's first-overall pick Trevor Lawrence ranks in the top 15 in passing yards and touchdowns despite having played the two-best pass defenses. He was lights-out in his last full game against the Ravens – throwing for 321 yards and three touchdowns. Star wideout Christian Kirk ranks in the top 12 in receptions and yards and is fifth among receivers with seven touchdowns. The Jacksonville pass attack is a massive variable to consider before making a Jaguars-Titans prediction.
Why The Titans Could Cover The Spread
Tennessee returns home following their second consecutive loss. That being said, their losses came at the hands of the Bengals and Eagles – two of the best teams in the league right now. The Titans are still fully in control of a weak AFC South and remain in the driver's seat for a playoff berth. While they won't take Jacksonville lightly, head coach Mike Vrabel has lost to Jacksonville just once in his tenure with the Titans.
If Tennessee is going to cover against Jacksonville, they are going to need to get something going through the air. While the Titans are a run-first team (third in rushing play percentage) they may not find much success against a Jaguars' defense allowing the seventh-fewest rushing yards per attempt. Sure, star running back Derrick Henry could explode for another of his patented 200-yard games but in all likelihood, they will need to throw the ball to win. The Jaguars rank a lowly 26th in passing yards allowed per attempt – something the Titans will need to take full advantage of.
The Titans will likely be without rookie receiver Treylon Burks after he left last week's game with a concussion. If that holds true, quarterback Ryan Tannehill will need another receiving option to step up. Veterans Robert Woods and Austin Hooper are the most likely candidates but neither has been wildly impressive this season. In the event that the Jaguars shut down Tennesee's run game, they need to get Derrick Henry the ball out of the backfield. Although he isn't normally known for his receiving abilities, Henry ranks fourth on the team in receptions and has already set a career-high in receiving yards this season. One way or another, Henry will have to be a focal point.
Final Jaguars-Titans Prediction & Pick
Despite Jacksonville's brutal outing last week, they catch a Titans team that was similarly blown out and is now missing their number-one wide receiver. Trevor Lawrence's status is worth paying attention to but if he's ruled out I'd jump all over a bigger line as second-stringer Gardner Minshew is a formidable backup.
Final Jaguars-Titans Prediction & Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 (-114)
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