The Houston Texans head to the sunshine state to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars at TIAA Bank Field. It's an AFC South divisional showdown and time to look at our NFL odds series and make a Texans-Jaguars prediction and pick.
The Texans fell to the Los Angeles Chargers 34-24 last weekend. Davis Mills completed 26 of his 35 passes for 246 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. Additionally, Dameon Pierce rushed 14 times for 131 yards and a touchdown. Nico Collins caught three passes for 82 yards, while Brandon Cooks added seven receptions for 57 yards and a touchdown. Running back Rex Burkhead caught five passes for 39 yards and a touchdown.
The Jaguars lost to the Philadelphia Eagles 29-21 in a rain-soaked affair. Trevor Lawrence completed 11 of his 23 passes for 174 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. Unfortunately, he also took four sacks and lost four fumbles. Travis Etienne rushed eight times for 32 yards at a 4.0 yards-per-carry rate. Likewise, James Robinson rushed eight times for 29 yards at a 3.6 yards-per-carry rate. Christian Kirk caught two passes for 60 yards, and Jamal Agnew added four receptions for 50 yards and two touchdowns.
The Texans have dominated this series. Houston leads the series 27-13, including a stretch of eight wins in a row. Subsequently, the teams faced off last November, with the Texans winning 30-16 at TIAA Stadium. Mills completed 19 of his 30 passes for 209 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. Meanwhile, Burkhead rushed 16 times for 41 yards. Cooks caught seven passes for 102 yards and two touchdowns.
Lawrence did not play well, completing 22 of his 38 passes for 210 yards with no touchdowns. Also, he took three sacks and looked lost. Lawrence has a 71.5 passer rating through two games against the Texans, with 542 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions. The Jaguars tried to run the ball but to no avail in that match. Moreover, Robinson rushed 18 times for 75 yards.
Here are the Texans-Jaguars NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
NFL Odds: Texans-Jaguars Odds
Houston Texans: +7 (-110)
Jacksonville Jaguars: -7 (-110)
Over: 43.5 (-115)
Under: 43.5 (-105)
Why The Texans Could Cover The Spread
The Texans have dominated this series by using simplified tactics. Ultimately, Houston runs the ball and stops the run. It helped them stop the Jaguars last season and the previous six times. However, they also must avoid mistakes.
Mills has a passer rating of 80.4 with 908 yards, five touchdowns, and four interceptions. However, he has also taken 11 sacks. It points to a mediocre offensive line and a quarterback that may hold onto the ball too long. Pierce has rushed 60 times for 313 yards and two touchdowns through four games. Ultimately, he has carved a role in this offense and looks to continue to ride that momentum this week. Cooks has caught 20 passes for 215 yards and a touchdown. Subsequently, these are ‘down' numbers by his standards.
The Texans' defense has yielded inconsistent results this year. They managed to hang tight with the Colts and Broncos through the first two weeks. Then, they endured a matchup with the Chicago Bears, who don't have a good offense, regardless. It went downhill last week as they allowed Herbert to throw all over them and Ekeler to find open lanes.
The Texans will cover the spread if they can run the ball efficiently and move the chains. Moreover, they must keep the clock running and give Lawrence little opportunity to do much.
Why The Jaguars Could Cover The Spread
The Jags have had an up-and-down season but are 2-2. Subsequently, they have played well enough through all four games to have a 4-0 record. It has not worked out that way as they blew a 14-0 last week and could not hold onto a late lead in Week 1.
Lawrence has been part of that up-and-down chain. He has passed for 946 yards, eight touchdowns, and two interceptions through four games. Unfortunately, he has also taken six sacks with four fumbles. The game script has spelled out when the Jags have played well. Thus, the Jags will win when Lawrence avoids mistakes and doesn't take hits.
Robinson has rushed 59 times for 259 yards and four touchdowns, while Etienne has rushed 34 times for 144 yards while catching eight passes for 81 yards. Unfortunately, he has not scored a touchdown and is still looking for the first score of his NFL career. Kirk has 20 receptions for 327 yards and three touchdowns. Also, the Jags might get another weapon back this weekend. Zay Jones has caught 19 passes for 173 yards and a touchdown through three games. He missed last week's contest and is questionable to play this weekend.
The defense is decent, and Josh Allen has come alive, producing three sacks and eight solo tackles through four games. Subsequently, the Jags must avoid mistakes on defense and not let the Texans run all over them.
Final Texans-Jaguars Prediction & Pick
The Jaguars are the favorites by seven points. It is too high. While Jacksonville may win this game, it will be a close thriller to the very end. Take the Texans to cover the spread.
Final Texans-Jaguars Prediction & Pick: Houston Texans: +7 (-110)
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