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This week, the Pittsburgh Steelers travel to Baltimore where they must defeat their archrivals in order to keep their faint playoff hopes alive. Across the NFL, the Broncos will look to bounce back from a demoralizing defeat when they take on one of the top teams in the league in the Kansas City Chiefs. It’s going to be a fun Sunday for football to kick off the new year, keep reading to see my best NFL picks to earn some profit as well!
Be sure to continue reading our NFL odds series for more on betting in the NFL.
All NFL odds courtesy of FanDuel.
Broncos-Chiefs
Broncos: +12.5 (-110), ML +530
Chiefs: -12.5 (-110), ML -750
The Broncos are coming off an absolutely miserable performance against the Rams, and there is little reason to expect massive improvement when they travel to hostile territory in Kansas City to take on a Chiefs team that is vastly superior to the Rams team that dismantled Denver last week.
This Denver team may look a little different with a new head coach at the helm and improved trust thanks to an outpouring of support from the receivers' room for embattled QB Russell Wilson, but I don’t think that will be anywhere near enough to save them against Patrick Mahomes and company.
Kansas City should absolutely win this game and could cover the spread with ease. However, Denver won’t play as bad as they did last week, and a little trust could go a long way offensively. I’m personally going to play an alternate spread line of -9.5 at -154 odds. If you’re the more cautious type, you can eat a little more juice and play -6.5 at -225.
NFL Pick: KC alternate spread -9.5 (-154)
Colts-Giants
Colts: +5.5 (-110), ML +194
Giants: -5.5 (-110), ML -235
This game features a matchup between two middling teams. Both teams are essentially average, with some decent players but no superstars and enough below-average players to limit the ceiling of their respective organizations. If you were to look up “average NFL quarterback” in the dictionary, you might just find a picture of Daniel Jones.
In my power rankings, I grade the Giants as slightly above the Colts due to the giants having an average player at the most important position, whereas the Colts have the aging and below-average Matt Ryan. The Giants also have the most explosive playmaker between both teams with running back Saquon Barkley, and their offensive line has been rapidly improving. The Giants will be able to control the flow of the game, allowing Jones to take shots when opportunities present themselves, and New York will be able to keep the Colts' offense at bay, as Ryan will struggle to move the ball down the field. The Giants also rank inside the top 10 in opponent touchdown scoring percentage in the RedZone, which will make life harder for Ryan and company even if they are able to move the ball.
NFL Pick: Giants -5.5 (-110)
Steelers-Ravens
Steelers: +2.5 (-110), ML +122
Ravens: -2.5 (-110), ML -144
This was already going to be a close game even before it was determined that Lamar Jackson would miss the game due to a knee injury. The Steelers have done a good job of limiting Jackson’s effectiveness in past matchups, but he is still essential to so much of what the Ravens like to do on offense. In addition to his strong arm, Jackson is arguably the best runner for the Ravens, and his dual-threat capabilities play a significant role in opening up the rest of the offense. Baltimore likes to play a run-heavy style of offense, which then opens up opportunities for deep shots down the field.
Part of the reason Baltimore’s ground game can be so effective is because opposing teams have to essentially prepare for not one, but two running backs on every play. This helps to spread out the defense and prevent them from just keying in on the running back.
Pittsburgh’s defense has been excellent for the majority of the season, and I believe they will step up in this game. The front seven will do their job stifling Baltimore’s running game, which will allow the secondary to focus on limiting the Ravens' passing game. The Ravens don’t have great receivers, to begin with, so shutting them down should be less of a problem. Also, the Steelers' pass rush, led by T.J. Watt, will be able to get to Tyler Huntley and make life very uncomfortable for him in the pocket, which will further reduce the effectiveness of Baltimore’s air attack.
The question becomes: Will the Steelers be able to score enough points to win this game? The Ravens rank 24th in defending the pass, allowing 239.5 passing yards per game on average. This is good news for Kenny Pickett, the rookie signal caller in Pittsburgh, as he has had success moving the ball between the 20s this season, with a lot of his struggles coming in the red zone. Baltimore boasts an elite RedZone defense, but this is one of those few exceptions where settling for field goals won’t necessarily hurt you because Baltimore will struggle to put points on the board themselves.
Pittsburgh can win this toss-up of a game, and I’ll happily take the plus money on this one.
NFL Pick: Steelers moneyline (+122)
