The NFL wide receiver market was blown open on Monday with the news of Justin Jefferson's record contract extension with the Minnesota Vikings. The 24-year-old is signing a four-year deal worth $140 million, making him the highest-paid non-quarterback in NFL history.
Jefferson is not the first and won’t be the last wide receiver to sign a massive extension this offseason, although he's set the bar for other star pass-catchers seeking a new deal. He's the eighth wide receiver this offseason to sign a contract worth at least $23 million per year and the third with an average salary of at least $30 million, topping Amon-Ra St. Brown and A.J. Brown with his $35 million annual salary.
The Vikings always envisioned paying Jefferson but maybe didn’t expect to hit such a high number. However, it'll be great business for Minnesota if other receivers end up signing for more and there's no reason to believe some of them won’t ask for exactly that.
The overall talent of the wide receiver position has perhaps never been better in the NFL. At least six players have an argument to be labeled the best wideout in the league and they all want to be paid as such.
CeeDee Lamb and Ja'Marr Chase headline the next crop of receivers looking for a big payday. Here's how we see their extensions shaking out.
CeeDee Lamb
If there's anybody as happy as Justin Jefferson after his new deal, it's Dallas Cowboys superstar CeeDee Lamb. Selected five picks ahead of Jefferson in the loaded receiver class of the 2020 NFL Draft, Lamb hasn’t matched Jefferson's numbers (to be fair, no one has), but he's undoubtedly put himself in the top tier of NFL pass-catchers.
Lamb picked the perfect time to reach that next level in 2023, posting career-highs across the board with 135 receptions, 1,749 yards and 12 touchdowns. He topped over 100 yards per game for the first time in his NFL career and recorded seven games with at least 11 receptions.
Now that a number has been set with Jefferson's contract, negotiations between Lamb and the Cowboys are expected to ramp up. Lamb will play out his age-25 season on the fifth-year option included in his rookie deal but it shouldn’t surprise anyone if he tops Jefferson's contract.
The only possible hurdle is if the Cowboys prioritize Dak Prescott's contract as the QB enters the final year of his deal, but it seems simpler now for Dallas to lock up Lamb for the long haul before training camp begins.
PREDICTION: Lamb signs a four-year, $150 million extension with $115 million guaranteed before the 2024 season
Brandon Aiyuk
Perhaps the most intriguing name on this list, Brandon Aiyuk and the San Francisco 49ers are in a precarious position as the 2024 season approaches. Similar to Lamb, Aiyuk is set to play on a fifth-year option this season, but the Niners might not be as enticed to pay him as the Cowboys are for Lamb.
Aiyuk has no doubt earned a hefty contract, but San Fran already has a ton on the books for the next few years with Christian McCaffrey, Nick Bosa and Deebo Samuel's contracts. That's not to mention the expected extension the Niners will give quarterback Brock Purdy in 2025 which will probably exceed $200 million in total value.
Aiyuk emerged as Purdy's top target last season and finished the year with 1,342 receiving yards for his second consecutive 1,000-yard season. Despite that, the Niners have tip-toed around extension negotiations given their leverage over Aiyuk.
San Francisco can let Aiyuk play out the 2024 season on his option and then tag him in 2025. If the Niners wanted to get maximum value for him in a trade, they should have done it before or during the draft.
Still, it seems more unlikely than not that Aiyuk will remain with the 49ers beyond 2025, with 2024 potentially serving as his final season with the team. They can probably still net multiple high-end picks for him next offseason with the franchise tag option and several teams would be willing to pay the price for a No. 1 wideout.
PREDICTION: Aiyuk plays out the 2024 season on his fifth-year option then the Niners tag and trade him to the Pittsburgh Steelers for a first-round pick and conditional third-round pick in 2025.
Ja'Marr Chase
Regardless of how much he'll get paid and how long he signs, there is little doubt that the Cincinnati Bengals will lock up Ja'Marr Chase within the next 15 months.
Chase wasted little time proving that the Bengals made the right choice by selecting him fifth overall in the 2021 NFL Draft as he instantly reconnected with his college teammate Joe Burrow. After starting his NFL career with three straight seasons of Pro Bowl selections, Chase should only get better as he sets his sights on a first-team All-Pro nod.
Chase mentioned last December that he wanted to wait and see what Justin Jefferson's contract looked like before starting extension negotiations with the Bengals. Now that both sides have those numbers, some soft discussions could begin before the season.
The Bengals know they're going to have to at least match Jefferson's numbers and they'd be wise to get a deal done with Chase before the Cowboys extend CeeDee Lamb. Chase's rookie deal runs through 2025 though, so there isn’t an immediate need to extend him.
It wouldn’t be shocking to see Cincinnati strike a deal with Chase before the season. We'll lean toward that not happening and the Bengals signing Chase next summer, lining his extension with Burrow's which runs through 2029.
PREDICTION: Chase signs a five-year, $180 million extension with $125 million guaranteed during the 2025 offseason.
Tee Higgins
We stay in Cincinnati for a more complicated situation involving the Bengals' No. 2 wide receiver Tee Higgins. After playing out the final year of his rookie contract, Higgins is slated to play under the franchise tag this year that will pay him just shy of $22 million.
Although not quite in the same realm as the other players on this list, Higgins is a more than formidable option and could serve as the top target for the right team. His numbers declined last season as he missed five games, but Higgins was targeted over 100 times and averaged over 1,000 yards per year in his first three NFL seasons.
With Burrow already on the books and Chase's extension coming next, it appears that Higgins is the odd man out and his days in Cincinnati are numbered. He's already requested a trade but the Bengals might be willing to ride out the season and let him test free agency next year if it means another shot at a Super Bowl in 2024.
Barring a trade offer in the next three months that blows the Bengals away, signs point to Higgins having one final audition for prospective teams looking to make a splash during free agency in 2025.
PREDICTION: Higgins plays out the 2024 season on the franchise tag and signs a four-year, $95 million contract with $60 million guaranteed with the New England Patriots during the 2025 offseason.
Tyreek Hill
Some of you are probably thinking, “What the heck is Tyreek Hill doing here?” Hill is under contract with the Miami Dolphins for three more seasons after signing a four-year extension worth $120 million in 2022.
Miami's trade and subsequent signing of Hill have more than paid off as the five-time All-Pro set career-highs in receiving yards in 2022 and 2023, respectively finishing ninth and sixth in NFL MVP voting.
Hill has been adamant that he wants to be the highest-paid receiver in the league. According to Over The Cap, the average annual value of his contract ranks him fourth in the NFL after the recent extension signings of Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Hill's leverage is his statistics and his track record of health – he's missed only one game due to injury since 2020 – but the Dolphins by no means need to renegotiate with him. Miami's biggest contract priority is locking up quarterback Tua Tagovailoa having recently signed wide receiver Jaylen Waddle to a fresh three-year extension.
It's unlikely the Dolphins engage in heavy negotiations with Tyreek Hill before the season. Keep in mind that the superstar wideout did grow some unrest when his numbers weren’t met by the Kansas City Chiefs a few years ago. There probably isn’t a scenario that Hill holds out and it would honestly be outrageous for him to do so, but stranger things have happened in the NFL.
PREDICTION: The Dolphins will flirt with the idea of renegotiating with Hill before ultimately restructuring his contract in 2025 with an added year tacked on, keeping him in Miami through 2027.
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