The Baltimore Ravens host the Cincinnati Bengals on Thanksgiving night in what should be a pivotal AFC North clash, with Baltimore looking to maintain divisional control at 6-5 while Cincinnati searches for signs of life at 3-8.

While Joe Burrow's return from his turf toe injury provides a spark for the struggling Bengals offense, there's one matchup that will ultimately determine the outcome of this Thursday night showdown: the Ravens' ground game versus Cincinnati's catastrophic rushing defense.

The Bengals' run defense has been an absolute liability all season long, ranking 31st in the NFL by allowing 156 rushing yards per game. This isn't a small sample size issue or a singular weak point—it's a systemic problem that defines Cincinnati's defensive identity.

More importantly, it's a weakness that the Ravens are uniquely equipped to exploit with their bruising, physical running back tandem and commitment to establishing the line of scrimmage early and often.

Derrick Henry has been the centerpiece of Baltimore's ground attack since Lamar Jackson returned from injury, posting three touchdowns over the last two weeks. While Henry's overall production has been more erratic this season compared to 2024, he's thriving in Baltimore's scheme when given the opportunity to get downhill and attack a porous defensive line.

Against the New York Jets in the Ravens' most recent outing, Henry managed just 3 yards per carry, but that matchup featured a completely different defensive structure. Cincinnati presents a chance for the future Hall of Famer to impose his will and establish dominance early in the game.

The Structural Weakness: Bengals Can't Win at the Point of Attack

Baltimore Ravens running back Derrick Henry (22) runs for a gain against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the fourth quarter at M&T Bank Stadium.
Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images

What makes the Bengals' rush defense so exploitable is the root cause of their failures. Cincinnati's defensive front lacks the depth, explosiveness, and stoutness needed to consistently win the line of scrimmage against heavier personnel groupings. When opposing teams bring big packages with multiple tight ends and fullbacks—exactly what the Ravens favor in their ground-oriented scheme—the Bengals crumble.

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The analytics bear this out: Cincinnati allowed 14 explosive runs (10+ yards) out of base personnel this season, including an alarming number within AFC North play specifically. When the Bengals stack the box with eight defenders to try and slow down the run, they rank fifth-worst in the NFL. This creates a paradox for Zac Taylor's defense: they can't stop the run when they commit resources to it, and they certainly can't stop it when they don't.

The second-level tackling from linebackers Germaine Pratt and safety Geno Stone has been particularly problematic. Teams are routinely breaking through for chunk gains because these defenders aren't filling lanes with conviction or executing tackles efficiently when they reach the hole. The Ravens, with their patient downhill running style, will test this weakness relentlessly.

The Opportunity: Establish Dominance Early

For the Ravens, the game plan is relatively straightforward. Control the line of scrimmage, establish the run, and keep Cincinnati's struggling defense on the field for extended periods. By grounding the football early and often, Baltimore can control the tempo, manage Lamar Jackson's recent passing inconsistencies, and keep the ball away from Burrow and a rejuvenated Bengals offense.

If Henry can get to 90+ yards and punch in a couple of touchdowns, the Ravens will have set the tone. More importantly, they'll have eliminated Cincinnati's ability to mount an offensive rhythm. With Tee Higgins sidelined by concussion and Ja'Marr Chase dealing with the rust from a one-game suspension, keeping Cincinnati's offense on the sideline is paramount.

The Ravens enter Thanksgiving as 7-point favorites for good reason, and their path to victory runs directly through Cincinnati's worst defensive weakness. If Baltimore can establish a dominant ground game early, control possession, and limit Burrow's opportunities to get into a rhythm, the Ravens will leave Baltimore victorious and tighten their grip on the AFC North crown.