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With the Buffalo Bills Week 5 matchup against the Pittsburgh Steelers coming Sunday, all eyes will once again be on Josh Allen. The Bills finally won a close football game last week. They erased a 17-point deficit on the road, in the rain against the Baltimore Ravens to win 23-20. It was the first time since the 2020-2021 NFL season that the Bills won a one-score game. They were 0-6 in those situations last season in the regular season and lost to the Chiefs in that situation in the playoffs. This year, Buffalo's only one score game was a loss to the Miami Dolphins a couple of weeks ago.
So, needless to say, that was a character building win for the Bills. Never mind all of the outside criticism, Buffalo showed themselves that they can win close. But this week, it's time they get back to dump trucking people.
The Bills will host the Steelers Sunday in what could turn ugly. So, let's get to our Bills Week 5 predictions.
4. Josh Allen accounts for 4 TDs
Bills QB Josh Allen has picked up where he left off last season. Through four games, Allen is second in the NFL with 1,227 passing yards. He's third in QBR at 76.5 and fourth in touchdown passes with 10. But we all know that it's Allen's legs that set him apart.
Josh Allen is on pace for
5215 Passing yards
43 passing TD's778 Rushing yards
8 Rushing TD'sFor a total of
5993 Total yards
51 Total Td's#BillsMafia— Charlie Gross (@TTP_Charlie) October 5, 2022
Not only is he a great passer, he is a great runner. Allen has 183 yards rushing on 30 carries this season, including two more scores on the ground.
The Steelers defense has been rather kind this season. They are 24th in the NFL, allowing 383 yards per game. They rank in the bottom third in both pass defense and rush defense. Minkah Fitzpatrick might not even play. The latest reports have him questionable with a knee injury and he did not practice on Wednesday. Neither did Terrell Edmonds or Ahkello Weatherspoon. That would be both starting safeties and a cornerback possibly out against Josh Allen. Yeah, I expect him to have a field day.
3. Bills defenses creates 2+ turnovers, allows under 300 yards
One of the most interesting angles in this game is the Steelers starting rookie QB Kenny Pickett for his first career start, on the road against the Bills defense.
Man, that's a tough assignment. Despite all of the injuries to Buffalo's defense, they are still tied with the San Francisco 49ers for the fewest yards allowed in the NFL. The Bills defense is top five in sacks, pressures, points allowed and turnovers created. Now they will face one of the worst offensive lines, protecting a rookie QB making his first career start. That is the perfect recipe for domination. Incidentally, the last time a rookie QB won their first career start against the #1 pass defense was Ben Roethlisberger in 2014.
From @NFLResearch: #Steelers rookie QB Kenny Pickett's first start will come against the Bills #1 pass defense.
The last rookie QB to beat the #1 pass defense in his first career start was Ben Roethlisberger in 2004.
— Missi Matthews (@missi_matthews) October 5, 2022
Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin had seen enough of Mitchell Trubisky and pulled him midway through the 24-20 loss to the New York Jets last week. Although Pickett completed 10 of 13 passes for 120 yards, he threw three interceptions. That was against the Jets defense.
I struggle to see ways in which the Steelers can consistently move the football.
2. Bills WR Gabriel Davis gets back on track
Bills wideout Gabriel Davis was expected to take on a bigger role in the offense this year. That has yet to come to fruition. Davis missed Week 2 with an ankle injury after having a solid season debut. But over the last two weeks, he struggled to make an impact.
Gabriel Davis is sitting on an 11.7% target share through 2 games.
— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) September 29, 2022
Davis caught three of six targets for 37 yards in a Week 3 loss to the Dolphins. Then last week was held to one catch for 13 yards against the Ravens. He dropped a couple passes, albeit in the rain.
Look for him to rebound this week against a weak Steelers secondary. As I mentioned above, Pittsburgh could be without both starting safeties and one cornerback. That should allow Davis to find some holes and make plays downfield for the Bills offense. Stefon Diggs will be the primary benefactor, but Davis should at least pull down a handful of catches and maybe get into the end zone.
1. Bills hammer Steelers, win by 20+ points
The Bills are favored by a couple touchdowns Sunday. It is by far the biggest spread on the board. But you can argue it should have been larger. Last season, in the Bills 11 wins, they beat their opponents by an average of 22 points per game. This year has been no different.
Buffalo demolished the defending Super Bowl champion Rams opening night. Then crushed the Titans at home a week later. As I talked about, last week's win over the Ravens was their first one-score victory in over a year. This game has all of the makings of a blowout. Bills Mafia should be very happy come Sunday evening.
