The Chicago Bears are clearly at a critical point to their season. Head coach Ben Johnson is trying to put together a consistent team that can compete against the better teams in the league and take advantage of the soft spots. Their Monday Night Football matchup in Week 6 is clearly a test against one of the better NFC teams.
The Commanders found both their coach in Dan Quinn and their quarterback in Jayden Daniels last season when they made it all the way to the NFC Championship Game against the Eagles. They have gotten off to a somewhat uneven start at 3-2, but the perception of the Commanders as a strong winning team has not changed.
The combination of Quinn, Daniels, Deebo Samuel and Zach Ertz have given the offense some real authority, while the presence of linebackers Bobby Wagner and Frankie Luvu along with cornerback Mike Sainristil are the keys to a defense that ranks 10th in points allowed at 20.2 points per game.
The Bears face a difficult assignment in going into Washington and trying to emerge with a victory. Quarterback Caleb Williams must continue to play effectively and the offense has to stand up against a Commander defense that can be vulnerable. However, the biggest issue in this game that may be fatal is Chicago's inability to stop Washington's effective running game.
Commanders have built a dynamic ground attack
The name Jacory Croskey-Merritt does not cause most fans to shudder. However, this rookie from Arizona is the leading ball carrier for the top rushing attack in the league.
Croskey-Merritt has not been called on to be a dominant running back, but that could change because he has been so effective this season. He has 43 carries for 283 yards and 4 TDs through the first five games of his career. He has a long run of 42 yards and he is averaging 6.6 yards per carry.
Daniels made his bones a year ago in part because he can run effectively. He has 124 yards and a 4.8 yards per carry mark, but he is wearing a knee brace after getting hurt earlier in the year.
The Commanders have also received solid but infrequent production on the ground from Jeremy McNichols, Chris Rodrigues, Samuel and backup quarterback Marcus Mariota.
Quinn is happy splitting up the responsibilities in the running game. He will go with the hot hand in each game until further notice. “I am comfortable sharing the responsibility and let’s see what the game presents coming up,” Quinn said. “And sometimes the guy gets hot and feels it, and we’ll lean into that, too.”
The Bears are allowing 164.5 rushing yards per game, and that's the second-worst figure in the league. They are giving up 6.2 yards per attempt, and that figure was even worse in Week 4 when they allowed the Raiders to gain 240 yards on the ground while allowing 7.7 yards per carry.
Bears have defensive weaknesses
The Bears are going to have trouble slowing down the Washington rushing attack unless they can put together their strongest defensive game of the season.
Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen can look at middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds (40 tackles) and know that he is going to get a solid effort from the Bears' leading tackler.
However, the defensive line has been a disappointment and the rest of the defense has been ordinary. The Bears need defensive end Montez Sweat and free safety Kevin Byard to step up and play to their past levels. If that doesn't happen, the Washington ground game could seize control.
Even moderate success on the ground could help turn this game into a one-sided win for the Commanders. If Daniels knows he can hand the ball to Croskey-Merritt or Samuel and get 5 yards or more on first down, it will open things up for him in the passing game.
The Commanders certainly have big weapons in this area, and the Bears are not going to be able to provide solid downfield coverage of Terry McLaurin and Samuel. McLaurin has been contending with a quad issue but he could be healthy for this game. Samuel loves the bright lights of the nationally televised, stand-alone games. He could be ready to dominate against the Bears.
They also have a tight end in Ertz who can keep drives alive with third-down receptions and is also a threat in the red zone.
If the Commanders establish their ground attack early in the game, the Bears' fatal flaw will be exposed.
