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Baker Mayfield is in a season-long slump. That may not change on Sunday when the Cleveland Browns visit the Denver Broncos. Under head coach Vic Fangio, the Broncos' pass defense has been stingy, allowing just 194.8 passing yards per game, good for fourth in the NFL. They have also allowed just six touchdowns on the year and an 82.1 cumulative passer rating.
It should be tough for Mayfield to pass the ball consistently. So how will the Browns move the ball? Nick Chubb and the running game, and a lot of it.
While the Broncos have done a good job stopping the pass, they are a susceptible unit against the run. They are allowing the 14th-most rushing yards per game (109.8) and without outside linebacker Bradley Chubb, that could get worse. The other Chubb, Nick, has the opportunity to scorch the Broncos defense, which hasn't done a particularly good job against power-rushers such as the Browns back.
In fact, just last year, Chubb has done well against the Broncos. In December of 2018, the then-rookie recorded 20 attempts for 100 yards against Denver.
The Browns need a big game for Chubb. He should, theoretically, be in line for one on Sunday. However, they don't just need him to just tread out yards on the ground alone. He will also play a big impact on opening up the play action for Mayfield. Not only is Mayfield skilled as a play-action passer, but it could also take heat away from him as Von Miller and company will be trying to exploit a bad offensive line.
Developing a run game to where the Broncos stack the box would be beneficial for the Browns. It would allow them to potentially test the Broncos over the top with one of the best deep threats in the game — some guy named Odell Beckham Jr. — and keep Fangio's defense on their toes. Chubb is certainly capable of doing so, so expect them to establish the run early.
It's worth noting that Cleveland's two wins have come on days where Chubb has done well. In Week 2, against the New York Jets, Chubb tallied 22 touches for 98 scrimmage yards and a touchdown. Then, in Week 5 against the Baltimore Ravens, he ran free for 20 attempts for 165 yards and three touchdowns with three receptions for 18 yards as a bonus. The Browns won the time of possession battle in both of the games.
To be clear, the Browns needs a big game from Chubb to beat-up a so-so Broncos rush defense and to help the play action flourish, which will help Mayfield get back on track.
