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The Dallas Cowboys fly to Jacksonville on Sunday in search of a much more impressive win than their Week 14 squeaker over Houston at home in Week 14. Meanwhile the Jags are fresh off Trevor Lawrence's best game as a pro in an impressive win over the Tennessee Titans. The Jags are a team that has flashed real competence at times this season. They're only 5-8, but impressive wins over Tennessee and Baltimore over the last three contests has Jacksonville quietly creeping towards the outskirts of the playoff picture in the NFC. Taking down the 10-win Cowboys would do a lot for the Jaguars in terms of solidifying themselves as a threat to sneak into the postseason. Motivations should be as high as ever in Jacksonville, and their former No. 1 overall pick is playing the best ball of his career under center. Here are three bold Cowboys predictions for Sunday's Week 15 tilt against the Jaguars.
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3. Dan Quinn makes an adjustment
The pass rush that was so dominant over the first half of the season was concerningly quiet against Houston. The Cowboys didn't get to the quarterback once Week 14, something that had not happened since Week 17 of last season. The pass rush is the lifeblood of Dallas' defense. Without it they suddenly become much easier to move the ball against. The good news for the Cowboys is that defensive coordinator Dan Quinn has been able to pull them out of a funk on multiple occasions already this season.
Before Week 14, Dallas' season low for team sacks in a game was two. They had hit that mark three separate times in Weeks 1, 4, and 10. In three games immediately after setting or matching the season low in sacks for a single game, Quinn has the Cowboys' defense averaging six sacks per contest. Dallas' pass rush is extremely hard to stop in any case. It becomes almost impossible to hold back when Quinn is dialing up stunts and formations that force the offense to think on their feet. Micah Parsons has gone sackless two weeks in a row for only the second time in 2022. Look for Quinn to dig deep in his bag of tricks to get Parsons, Lawrence, and the rest of Dallas' pass rushers into the backfield in Jacksonville.
2. Safeties make or break the defensive game plan
As Jayron Kearse put it, Dallas' “three-headed monster” of safeties has been arguably the team's best position group in recent games. Kearse has battled injuries but been solid in coverage on the field. Malik Hooker pulled off a career performance against his old team in Week 13, and Donovan Wilson's emergence as a playmaker at all levels of the defense continues to impress. The trio is one of the top safety units in the NFL over this season. On Sunday afternoon in Jacksonville, the Cowboys will need them to be at their best.
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Say what you will about Anthony Brown, but his speed gave the Cowboys flexibility in coverage of smaller, quicker receivers. Kelvin Joseph and the newly acquired Trayvon Mullen are capable players, but the Cowboys are probably less likely to leave them on an island with a burner like they did with Brown. Jacksonville has more than one player in the offense who could cause problems for the Cowboys' secondary with their speed.
Christian Kirk routinely busts the 20 MPH threshold in game settings. Pair him with two players who run sub-4.5 40-yard dashes in Zay Jones and Marvin Jones Jr., and the Jaguars' wide receiver room is more than capable of taking the top off a defense. That is where the safeties come into the equation for Dallas. This is not going to be a man-to-man day for the offense. Kearse, Hooker, and Wilson need to be sharp and aggressive to help the Cowboys' depleted group of cornerbacks cover all of Jacksonville's speedy receivers. With Lawrence's big arm, a few big plays over the top could easily make this game a lot closer than the Cowboys would like it to be.
1. T.Y. Hilton helps Dak Prescott breaks out of his funk
It has not been a great few weeks for Dak Prescott. The Cowboys are winning, but he has thrown picks at a higher rate than he has ever in his career. Dallas' pass blocking has played a part in that, but Prescott has a good enough pocket presence to make plays in the backfield when things break down up front. Much less in his control, however, is the separation his targets are getting. Dalton Schultz is achieving the highest margin of separation from the nearest defender when targeted at 3 yards on average, per NFL's Next Gen Stats. The next most elusive targets Dallas has are Michael Gallup and Noah Brown with 2.5 yards of separation on average. Those are very modest numbers for the Cowboys' receivers, but the addition of T.Y. Hilton should help that.
Hilton says he can still run, and it appears the Cowboys would agree since they signed him. Adding the veteran to the receiving corps puts a player on the field who will keep defenses from smothering Dallas' wide receivers over the middle. The Jaguars are going to have to account for Hilton over the top, which should take some pressure off CeeDee Lamb and the tight ends in the middle of the field. The result on Sunday should be more breathing room for Prescott to make plays.
