The Dallas Cowboys made a big impact news-wise at the 2025 NFL Trade Deadline, even if some folks thought they were out of their minds. But here is why the Cowboys’ decision to trade for Quinnen Williams was a rousing success.
It’s surprising to hear nearly all of the so-called NFL experts whiff on this one. Time after time, they’ve said things like, “The Cowboys can’t make the playoffs.” Or “they gave up way too much.”
But these takes can both be wrong. And the second one could be laughably off base. Let’s dig into this.
Cowboys may have robbed the NFL bank
First, let’s not give too much credit to Jerry Jones. He admitted he often stirs the pot, so to speak, just to keep the Cowboys “relevant.” And that’s probably a reason why some people think this trade was angled in that direction.
And we also need to consider what the Cowboys got in Williams. He may not be the player some people think he is, according to ESPN.
“Williams has one All-Pro nod in six seasons as a pro, as well as three consecutive Pro Bowl appearances,” Ben Solak wrote. “He's a great player who, at his best, has been an absolute game-wrecker. His 2023 season, in which he had a pressure rate of 16.3%, remains the most disruptive pass-rush season for a defensive tackle in the Next Gen Stats database (since 2016).
“But like [Sauce] Gardner, Williams' play has tailed off in recent years. He had a pressure rate of 12.0% in 2024 (still quite good) and 8.0% so far this season (quite bad). His time to pressure is also falling — 2.74 seconds in 2022 (his All-Pro season), 2.79 seconds the following year, then 3.02 and now 3.16.”
That’s fair. But let’s put all of those numbers in context text. Williams has been playing for a horrible team and organization. Winning isn’t expected. In fact, if you consider the offseason moves this year, it can easily be argued that losing has been the expectation.
Now, at age 27 and still in his prime, he goes to an organization where winning is not only expected, it’s demanded. In fact, it’s demanded even when it’s very unlikely to happen. For three decades, the expectation has been to win the Super Bowl, even though some teams had no shot.
This year is a prime example. Once the Cowboys traded Micah Parsons, they had almost no shot to win the Super Bowl. But fans, Jones, and experts still talked about the Cowboys as a threat.
Williams could be rejuvenated in this environment. He’s handled the pressure of the New York media. Could it be worse in Dallas? No. This could be a breath of fresh air for Williams.
Yeah, but they gave up too much
Did they? Let’s look at this. What did the Cowboys give up for Williams? It’s entirely possible they gave up next to nothing.
Wait, they traded a second-round pick AND a first-round pick. That’s a lot, right? And they also traded one of their own first-round picks in Mazi Smith from the 2023 NFL Draft.
But NFL experts tend to forget that first-round picks don’t always pan out. Only about one-third of the first-round picks from 2011-20 have earned at least one Pro Bowl honor, according to nextlevelfootball.com
So there’s a way better than 50-50 chance that whoever the Jets pick in the first round will be a dud rather than a stud. In fact, because it’s the Jets, it will almost surely be a dud.
Now the Cowboys probably would have made a better pick than the Jets. But let’s not forget Smith. He’s a throw-in for this trade. The Cowboys have given up on him after 2 1/2 seasons. Smith turned out to be a wasted first-round pick.
Smith is living proof that the Cowboys possibly will have given up next to nothing for Williams. If Smith flops with the Jets and the Jets make two bad picks, the Cowboys can snicker.
And here’s another element. Williams is a proven NFL talent. How many players eligible for either the 2026 or 2027 drafts are proven NFL talents? The answer is easy. Zero. None.
Until you do it, you aren’t. There’s no such thing as a sure pick. Injuries can play a role, or the player might not have the tremendous guts it takes to succeed in the NFL. Or they may just be overrated because they’re big, strong, and can run fast.
But also keep in mind that the Cowboys didn’t empty the draft-pick tank. They still have three first-round picks over the next two years. They still have that 33% chance of striking gold.
The Cowboys only need to wonder how many years Williams has left as a premier talent. It's fair to argue that maybe he only has two seasons left at that level. But that takes us to our next point.
The Cowboys could be a 2026 Super Bowl contender
Every year is different, and injuries can change the landscape so much. But the Cowboys still have a franchise quarterback in Dak Prescott, who they still believe can deliver at a playoff level for years to come.
The Cowboys face a decision on re-signing wide receiver George Pickens in the offseason. If they do, their offense will still be top five, maybe top three, maybe No. 1.
And now the defense, with a guy like Williams helping stuff the run, could be at least decent. Combine a great offense with a decent defense and you have … yes, a true Super Bowl contender.
Plus, the Cowboys might sign a premier free agent edge rusher in the offseason. If that happens and they keep Pickens, the Cowboys go from contender to possibly even one of the favorites.
But, hey, what about the playoffs this year
This is one of the worst whiffs of them all, by people like Dan Orlovsky, Stephen A. Smith, and anybody who says the Cowboys have no shot at the playoffs. They look at the analytics and see a less than 10% chance.
Great. Stop playing games. Right? It’s over.
The problem is the assumption of automatic losses. Who’s to say the Cowboys couldn’t get hot and win a few games in a row? Yes, the schedule is tough after the breather against the Raiders, with the Eagles, Chiefs, and Lions in a row.
However, the Chiefs haven’t been the Chiefs this year. The Lions looked great until they lost to the Vikings.
And what about the Eagles? Well, the Cowboys should have beaten them the first time. And now they get them at home.
What if the Cowboys win four in a row? They’ll be 7-5-1. And you will likely see people like Orlovsky sing an opera about how great the Cowboys are, and how they are a lock for the playoffs, and blah, blah, blah.
Dallas winning four in a row is equal to saying they’re already out of the playoffs. NFL experts have to take opinion stances because that’s what they’re paid to do. And they know the average viewer will forget what they said after a short period of time,
But regardless of how things play out in 2025, this trade right now looks like a rousing success for the Cowboys.
