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The Denver Broncos are having a very nice offseason after a disappointing 2020 campaign, but the decision that will make or break the 2021 season has still yet to be made.
Continuing our look at teams' approach to NFL free agency, here's what the Broncos still need to do.
The Broncos won the first wave of free agency
The Broncos did a fantastic job in free agency so far. Their biggest weakness going into the offseason was their cornerback room. Now they have an intimidating unit. Ronald Darby and Kyle Fuller on the outside, Bryce Callahan in the slot? Keeping Simmons and Kareem Jackson? That could very well be the best secondary in the entire league.
It’s been a tumultuous offseason, but it looks like Von Miller will be back, so the edge rush should be stellar. Shelby Harris is one of the most underrated interior D-Linemen. Even as an Alexander Johnson fan, they could still use another linebacker. But overall the defense looks great. The offense is young and promising. Courtland Sutton will be back.
But the QB position is still a massive question mark
It all comes down to Drew Lock. The charismatic young quarterback had high expectations coming into last season after leading the Broncos to a 4-1 record in late 2019, but the 2020 season was a disappointment. Lock failed to show any kind of consistency. Occasional flashes of promise were vastly outweighed by poor decisions and errant throws. The Broncos passing offense ranked 31st in DVOA.
The question now facing Denver is whether or not they should give Lock another chance. He’s still only 24 years old, he clearly has good arm talent, and the offense was very young with no real offseason to form cohesiveness. On the other hand, the window of having a great defense is very small. Next offseason Von Miller, Kyler Fuller, Bradley Chubb, Bryce Callahan, and Alexander Johnson are all free agents. This may be the only year they can get elite defensive level play. Do you really trust Drew Lock to take full advantage of that and develop into an elite quarterback?
I’m slightly higher on Lock than most, but even I would not want to put all my chips on the guy. Good QB play could elevate this team into a legitimate playoff contender. What are the odds Lock reaches that compared to the odds that Fields or Wilson or Lance or Mac Jones does?
The big choice the Broncos have to make
At this point I think I’d rather take a chance on a rookie. Drew Lock would need a Josh Allen-esque turnaround in 2021, which almost never happens. Also, Lock was a 2nd round pick. 2nd round quarterbacks do not have a high hit rate as franchise guys. Andy Dalton and Derek Carr are some of the best second round QBs of all time. If Lock hasn’t looked like “the guy” in two years, it most likely will never happen. Even though I do like his traits.
So the Broncos choices are likely these
- Ride with Lock, take someone else at nine
- Take Mac Jones at nine
- Trade up into the top five and take Wilson/Fields/Lance
- Make a trade for a Gardner Minshew tier QB
Door number three is the best option. All are better prospects than Lock was coming out, and since Lock hasn’t really developed, they all should be considered upgrades over him. Mac Jones at nine seems like a huge reach, though. Jones has a limited arm and played in a bounded offensive system at Bama. If the draft rumors are to be trusted, though, he’s projected to be taken in the top half of the first round, and nine would be the Broncos best shot to get him.
It’s strange the Broncos haven’t signed a veteran QB to the roster yet. An offer to guys like Dalton, Fitzpatrick, or Cam would have made sense. But that’s off the table now. With this short window of a championship caliber defense, I think Denver needs to do everything they can to upgrade at QB. Trading up for a QB is the easiest way to do that.
