The Denver Broncos entered Week 17 with a lot to gain, even against a Kansas City Chiefs team that had nothing to play for. The Broncos began the week as the frontrunner to clinch the AFC's No. 1 seed in the NFL playoffs, a position that has only strengthened since.
It did not come easy, but the Broncos left Arrowhead Stadium on Thursday with a 20-13 win over the Chiefs. That victory improved their record to 13-3 and kept them at the top of the AFC.
Had Denver beaten the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 16, the No. 1 seed might already be secured. The Broncos, who entered Week 17 tied with the New England Patriots for the best record in the league, would have stood alone as the only 14-win team.
Instead, they suffered their first loss since Week 3 and watched their 11-game win streak wither away. They still entered the penultimate week of the 2025 NFL regular season with a shot at clinching the No. 1 seed, as slim as the window might be.
The Broncos are still favored to lock up the first-round bye, but it is unlikely to become official until Week 18. They still got two steps closer by beating the Chiefs on Christmas, and received some help from the Houston Texans on Saturday.
Broncos clinch AFC West with Chargers loss
The Broncos might not have the No. 1 seed yet, but it is firmly in their hands to lose. They got one step closer on Saturday with the Los Angeles Chargers' loss to the Houston Texans, which allowed Denver to clinch the AFC West.
The Broncos entered Week 17 with a 77 percent chance of clinching the division, according to ESPN. Their win on Christmas and the Chargers' subsequent loss made them the first AFC team to win their division.
Denver also entered the week with a 55.5 percent chance of clinching the No. 1 seed, per FTN Fantasy. Those odds are the highest of any team in the NFL.
Had Los Angeles beaten Houston in its final regular season home game, everything would have come down to Week 18. The Broncos and Chargers end the year against each other at Mile High Stadium, and the entire division would have been at stake.
But with the loss, the 11-5 Chargers fell out of the running in the AFC West, and their small odds of earning the No. 1 seed vanished. It is now essentially a four-team race between the Broncos, Patriots, Jaguars and Buffalo Bills.
How Broncos can clinch No. 1 seed in Week 17
The Broncos' win over the Chiefs and the Chargers' loss to the Texans were two of four steps Denver needed to clinch the No. 1 seed in Week 17. If the Jaguars lose to the Indianapolis Colts and the Patriots fall to the New York Jets, Sean Payton and Bo Nix will waltz into Week 18 with the top spot in the AFC playoff bracket already in hand.
Although technically already halfway there, the Broncos will need a minor miracle to clinch the conference in Week 17. The Patriots and Jaguars are both favored to win their matchups with relative ease, with oddsmakers giving New England a two-touchdown edge.
Denver is still the only AFC team in control of its own destiny, regardless of what plays out with New England and Jacksonville. The Broncos own the tiebreaker over the Patriots due to the latter's Week 1 loss to the Las Vegas Raiders, against whom Denver has a pair of wins.
However, the No. 1 seed is still far from a foregone conclusion. While all the Broncos need is a Week 18 victory to lock up the division, their final regular season matchup against the Chargers is much tougher than that of the Patriots. If Los Angeles collects a second win over Denver, all New England has to do is beat the lowly Miami Dolphins to clinch the first-round bye.
If both teams lose, the Jaguars would have a chance to slip in the back door. Jacksonville needs upsets to keep its chances alive, but it has the best remaining schedule against the Philip Rivers-led Colts and the 3-12 Tennessee Titans.
Unless the Patriots stub their toes in either of their last two games, expect the AFC to come down to the wire.
