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The Green Bay Packers and Pittsburgh Steelers are two of the biggest and most prestigious franchises in the NFL, and they have plenty of history. The most notable came in Super Bowl XLV, when Aaron Rodgers and the Packers took down Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers to win their fourth Super Bowl in franchise history.
This game, while still very much important to both sides… doesn't have those kinds of stakes attached. The Steelers, despite owning a -30 point differential on the season, need to keep up with the loaded AFC North where every team has a 5-3 record except for the Baltimore Ravens, who lead the division with a 7-2 record. The Packers got a much-needed win last week against the Brett Rypien-led Los Angeles Rams to get to 3-5 on the season. They are closer to a top-three pick than a Wild Card spot as things stand, but they want to compete and try to make something out of this disappointing start to the 2023 season.
This may not be the most prolific game of the slate, but it should still be a good one. But a game with these two historic franchises warrants some bold predictions.
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Aaron Jones runs for at least 100 yards
The Packers have always wanted to be smart with Aaron Jones' usage, especially as he ages. Jones tweaking his hamstring in Week 1 and doing so again in practice on the Saturday before the Packers' Week 5 Monday Night tilt against the Las Vegas Raiders. It really wasn't until last week against the Rams that the Packers really let Jones loose again. Jones had 20 carries for 73 yards and a touchdown while adding six targets and four receptions for 26 yards.
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That usage was by far a season-high for Jones. The most carries he had in a game before last week were the nine carries he saw in Week 1 against the Bears. He more than doubled that this week. His six targets were also a season-high. The Packers are ramping up Jones, and they'll need him this week in a matchup he should deliver in. The Steelers are a middle-of-the-pack run defense in terms of EPA allowed per rush. They rank 16th in the league in that metric. But they rank fourth in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game at 133.1.
Players like Christian McCaffrey, Nick Chubb, Jerome Ford, and Travis Etienne, among others, have had big games against the Steelers this season. Only McCaffrey and Ford, however, have been able to cross triple-digits against them this season. Jones is more than capable of making it three.
No team scores more than 17 points
According to ESPN Bet, the over/under for this game is set at 38.5. While both teams feature dynamic offensive players like Aaron Jones, Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Luke Musgrave, Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, Jaylen Warren, and Najee Harris, neither offense has been able to get out of the mud this season. The Packers rank 19th in the NFL in EPA per play, while the Steelers rank 26th. The Packers have exceeded 20 points twice out of their eight games this season and have yet to do so since Week 2. The Steelers have accomplished that feat three times, but one of those instances required the aid of two defensive touchdowns to get them there.
The Steelers are at home and have been relying on their defense and their pass rush to keep them in games all season long. They muck games up. They make it ugly. The Packers' offensive line has not played to their standard all season long. This is the type of game the Steelers win. They win, but won't score much, and won't allow the Packers to do so either.
