The Houston Texans travel to Seattle for Monday Night Football with a chance to build on their momentum. The Texans enter at 2-3 after defeating the Ravens 44-10 before their bye week. The Seahawks sit at 4-2 but have struggled at home this season with a 1-2 record at Lumen Field.
Houston's defense ranks first in the NFL in scoring, while Seattle's offense has been one of the league's most productive units.
Can the Texans' offense exploit Seattle's vulnerable secondary?
The Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud is playing his best football after earning AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors following Houston's dominant win over Baltimore.
“Our o-lineman did a great job, and that's where it starts, I'm one of the best when I can get the time, and I can deal it out, and our o-lineman did an amazing game.” He emphasized the offensive line's crucial role in his dominant performance that day.
The matchup favors Houston's passing attack. In Week 6, the Seahawks dealt with multiple secondary injuries. Starting safety Julian Love and cornerbacks Devon Witherspoon and Riq Woolen all missed the game against Jacksonville.
Stroud is likely to target the middle of the field, where Seattle's injuries leave them most vulnerable. The Texans may favor quick slants and crossing routes, which will help them get the ball out fast and avoid Seattle's pass rush.
Even if some of those players return, the Texans have had two weeks to prepare. Offensive coordinator Nick Caley studied Seattle's defensive weaknesses during the bye week. “When [Nick Caley] is calling a great game, and receivers are running really good routes. We've been getting at practice every week, and I think that's where you see the growth,” Stroud said after the Ravens game.
Houston will likely start conservatively with short passes to build rhythm. Once Stroud gets comfortable, Nick Caley can open up the playbook with deeper shots downfield. The Seahawks struggled with this approach from Jacksonville.
Nick Chubb's presence in the backfield helps Stroud. In five games with Houston, Chubb has 249 rushing yards and two touchdowns. The running game keeps Seattle's defense engaged and creates opportunities for play-action passes downfield.
Stroud could throw for 275-300 yards with two or three touchdowns if the protection holds up. The Texans quarterback knows what's at stake. “We can be really good. When we clean up mistakes, don't have a bunch of penalties, and play complementary football in three phases, I think this is what you get,” Stroud said after the Ravens' win.
Houston's elite pass rush could give Sam Darnold problems
The Texans' defensive line might dominate this game. Houston's Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. pass-rushing duo is one of the most dangerous in the league.
Hunter has been excellent on Monday Night Football throughout his career. This season, Hunter already has four sacks and continues to pressure quarterbacks. Hunter should have multiple chances to get after Darnold on third downs. The Texans will likely put pressure on passing downs when Seattle needs to throw. Hunter's speed off the edge could force Darnold into quick throws.
Will Anderson Jr. has three sacks through five games this year. The 2023 Defensive Rookie of the Year posted 11.5 sacks last season. Hunter praised Anderson's improvement. “He excels at maintaining a low posture. He did well last year, but this season, it's evident he's focused on lowering his body even further. That's something offensive linemen struggle against”.
Seattle's offensive line has been solid, allowing just seven sacks this season. But they haven't faced a pass rush as talented as Houston's yet. The Seahawks might struggle to adjust their protection schemes in real time. Houston will bring pressure from different angles throughout the game. Darnold could face consistent pressure up the middle from the defensive tackles too.
“For me, the defense, we haven't changed what we've done. Again, the defense is a credit to the players. It's nothing to do with coaches and what we do as coaches. It's all about the players and what they're doing on the field,” Ryans said when discussing his defensive unit's preparation for Seattle.
The Texans rank fourth in total defense and first in scoring defense. Ryans, who coached San Francisco's defense, knows the NFC West well. He'll have exotic pressure packages ready after the bye week.
Expect the Texans to record at least three sacks, with Hunter getting at least one. Anderson could add another, and the interior pressure might force a strip-sack opportunity. If Houston gets ahead early, they'll pin their ears back and attack in obvious passing situations. This pressure could lead to a turnover or two if Darnold holds the ball too long, looking for Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Seattle's quick passing game under coordinator Klint Kubiak could limit some damage, but Houston's talent should win key matchups.
Nick Chubb could break out in prime time
Nick Chubb might have his best performance as a Texan on Monday night. With Joe Mixon out indefinitely, Chubb has become Houston's lead running back.
Chubb has looked solid through five games with 249 rushing yards and two touchdowns. He came off his best game against Baltimore, rushing for 61 yards and a touchdown.
Seattle has one of the league's best run defenses this season. But the Seahawks recently played Jacksonville's run-heavy offense. That physical game could wear on their defense heading into Monday night.
Head coach DeMeco Ryans knows the importance of establishing the run. “When you can run the ball, you can sustain drives. That's the key. That allows (offensive coordinator Nick) Caley to open up the playbook,” Ryans said.
Houston's offensive line has improved significantly. Right guard Ed Ingram has been one of the league's top-rated guards. This should open better running lanes for Chubb. The Texans will likely lean on the running game more in the second half if they stay close.
Chubb could see 18-20 carries and push for 80-100 yards. If Houston gets into the red zone multiple times, expect Chubb to punch in at least one touchdown.
If Chubb finds running lanes early, it opens up everything else. The physical running game can wear down Seattle's defense and set up play-action passes for Stroud. Rookie Woody Marks could also get touches to keep Chubb fresh for late-game situations.
These three predictions give Houston a strong chance to pull off the upset in Seattle. The game kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
