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Despite finishing out the 2023 NFL season with a winning record, it's hard to argue that the Jacksonville Jaguars weren't one of the most disappointing teams in the NFL, as they parlayed an 8-3 start into a 9-8 finish and effectively blew their playoff chances with a loss to the Tennessee Titans in Week 18 despite having the divisional ball in their proverbial court.
Fortunately, it would appear the Jaguars did take note of their internal issues and have made a concerted effort to right the ship, signing a few big-name free agents to fill out their depth chart and securing some very interesting talent in the NFL draft.
Will it work? Will the Jaguars finally look like contenders once more? Only time will tell, but they've certainly made some moves to try to do just that.
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1. Trevor Lawrence finally gets his flowers outside of Jacksonville
Since only throwing for 3,641 yards – albeit while throwing 17 interceptions versus just 12 touchdowns – as a rookie, Trevor Lawrence has been one of the more consistently productive quarterbacks in the NFL, throwing for at least 4,000 yards and 21 touchdowns in both 2022 and 2023.
And yet, maybe due to his team's mediocre on-field product or because he gets a bit too gunslinger-y when he doesn't have to, but few fans consider Lawrence to be a top-5 quarterback in the NFL today, with his spot in the greater signal-caller hierarchy falling somewhere in the 10-15 range in most rankings.
In 2024, that has a chance to change in a major way.
After taking a step back in terms of record and on-field efficiency in 2023, going from a Pro Bowler to one of the AFC's most curious cases, the Jaguars have really leaned into their commitment to Lawrence, adding deep vertical threats like Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. in free agency and the draft, respectively, before handing the Clemson product a new five-year contract extension worth $275 million that will keep him in Florida through the 2030 season.
Can the Jags succeed with an offense seemingly designed to attack the deep parts of the field with vertical concepts when the NFL is still obsessed with defensive schemes based on the Vic Fangio formula, with a pair of deep safeties deployed in such a way as to take away said concepts? Only time will tell, but considering Lawrence has been a big fan of throwing the ball deep down the field since his college career, the willingness of Doug Pederson and Press Taylor to really go all-in on what worked for the “Golden Boy” at Clemson could pay big dividends in 2024.
Could Lawrence earn his second Pro Bowl nod? Sure. Could he finally become an All-Pro? Certainly. MVP? While that last one may be hard, considering the sheer talent in the NFL right now, the sky truly is the limit for Lawrence in the NFL, which is why Shad Khan and company were willing to lock him up indefinitely despite never leading his team to double-digit wins as a pro.
2. Ryan Nielsen doesn't fix the Jaguars' defensive woes
When Pederson's last team, the Philadelphia Eagles, were at their best, they won games with a combination of smart quarterback play, a strong run game, and an elite defense led by now-Cleveland Browns defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz.
While that formula worked in Philadelphia, securing the city its first Super Bowl behind the arm of backup quarterback Nick Foles, it hasn't quite translated to the NFL, as Pederson has his Carson Wentz-style gunslinger in Lawrence and a workhorse back in Travis Etienne but their defense has yet to become one of the premier units in the NFL, so much so that his original coordinator, Mike Caldwell, was let go this offseason in favor of Ryan Nielsen.
After spending last season as the Falcons' defensive coordinator and defensive line coach, Nielsen was released by Atlanta along with the rest of Arthur Smith's staff in favor of Raheem Morris' new regime and thus was allowed to pursue new opportunities, including the vacant spot in Jacksonville.
The only problem? The Falcons' defense wasn't that good last season, ranking 18th in points allowed, 11th in yards allowed, and 23rd in point differential in 2023.
Now granted, if Nielsen was truly elite, he probably would have been retained by the Falcons despite hiring a defensive head coach, but considering the Jaguars actually fared better in points allowed and point differential, at best, his addition will be a lateral move, with the potential for the Jaguars to once again find themselves stuck with an average-to-below-average defense this fall.
Who knows, maybe having a different voice will be enough to get the Jaguars' defense back on track, but for now, fans shouldn't be too hopeful for a magical turnaround when Nielsen might just bring more of the same.
