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The Kansas City Chiefs Week 17 win vs. the Denver Broncos wasn’t pretty. The Broncos gave the AFC West leaders everything they could handle, and Patrick Mahomes and company only came away with a three-point win. Win or lose, the Chiefs' playoffs spot wasn’t going to be in jeopardy. However, the Chiefs-Broncos game did have playoff ramifications, specifically when it comes to the AFC team that will win the conference and get the first-round bye. After the win over the Broncos, here are the Chiefs' playoff scenarios heading into Week 18.
Chiefs playoff scenarios
The biggest thing that the Chiefs' Week 17 win accomplished is pushing the AFC title race into Week 18. There are no Chiefs' playoff scenarios where they miss the playoffs, and after clinching the AFC West several weeks ago, the worst the Chiefs could do is finish third in the conference.
All eyes will be on the massive Buffalo Bills vs. Cincinnati Bengals Monday Night Football game, which will officially send the season into its final week, and give us more clarity on the top of the AFC race.
Because the Chiefs-Broncos game resulted in a win for Kansas City, the Bills can’t clinch the No. 1 seed against the Bengals. However, the AFC East unit is in the best position to earn the first-round bye and only needs to win its last two games (vs. the Bengals and New England Patriots) to do so.
If the Bills win out, there is nothing the Chiefs can do to earn the bye on Wild Card weekend. However, if the Bengals beat the visiting team on Monday, things start to get interesting. Here are the 2022-23 Chiefs playoff scenarios after Week 17 and how they can finish first, second, or third in the AFC.
Chiefs finish No. 1 in the AFC, get first-round bye
Both the Bengals and Bills have the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Chiefs, so there is no way Kansas City finishes with the same record as either of these teams and comes out on top.
The easiest Chiefs playoffs scenario that gets them a first-round bye includes a Week 18 win vs. the Las Vegas Raiders. That would make the Chiefs' final record 14-3 on the season. The Bengals already have four losses, so they’ll need a little help to earn the bye.
After the Chiefs' Week 17 win, here’s what one AFC championship looks like for Kansas City:
- Chiefs beat Raiders in Week 18
- Bengals beat Bills in Week 17
That is the simplest Chiefs' path to the bye. However, they could lose to the Raiders if they got some additional help. Here’s what that looks like:
- Chiefs lose to Raiders in Week 18
- Bengals beat Bills in Week 17, lose to Ravens in Week 18
- Bills lose to Bengals in Week 17, lose to Patriots in Week 18
In that Chiefs' playoff scenario, both the Bengals and Bills would have five losses, while Andy Reid's team would have four. The most likely scenario with a Kansas City Week 18 loss, though, is that they finish second or third in the AFC.
Kansas City finishes No. 2 in the AFC
The result of the Chiefs-Broncos game means that KC won’t fall far at the top of the AFC, but it does make second place a realistic situation.
If the Bills beat the Bengals in Week 17, that locks the Bengals into third place. A second Bills win in Week 18 would cause Kansas City to fall down into second place.
Another second-place scenario looks like this:
- Chiefs lose to Raiders in Week 18
- Bengals beat Bills in Week 17, beat Ravens in Week 18
- Bills lose to Bengals in Week 17, lose to Patriots in Week 18
The two Chiefs playoff scenarios above, finishing first or second in the AFC are the most likely outcomes of this final-week shuffle. However, there is one specific combo of results that would put the Chiefs in third place in the AFC.
KC finishes No. 3 in the AFC
Because Kansas City lost to both Buffalo and Cincinnati this season if all the teams end their seasons with a 13-4 record, Kansas City will drop to third place. After the Chiefs' Week 17 win victory over Denver, the only way that happens is if Kansas City loses to Las Vegas in Week 18. In that case, here is what would have to happen for KC to fall to third:
- Chiefs lose to Raiders in Week 18
- Bengals beat Bills in Week 17, beat Ravens in Week 18
- Bills lose to Bengals in Week 17, beat Patriots in Week 18
And with those results, Kansas City would finish in third place in the AFC, with the Bengals No. 1 and the Bills No. 2.
