The Los Angeles Rams enter Sunday Night Football as 6.5-point favorites against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, carrying momentum from a thrilling five-game winning streak that has vaulted them to 8-2. The Buccaneers, conversely, are fighting to keep their playoff hopes alive after dropping three of their last four games and sitting at 6-4. While both teams boast dynamic offenses and solid defensive units, there's one player who could single-handedly shift the trajectory of this divisional matchup: Kyren Williams, the Rams' lead running back.
On the surface, focusing on Williams might seem counterintuitive when Matthew Stafford is putting on an historic display of quarterback excellence. Stafford has thrown 22 touchdowns and zero interceptions over his last seven games, leading the NFL in scoring while protecting the football at an MVP-caliber level. His precision and command make him a legitimate conversation piece in postseason awards discussions.
However, Stafford's recent dominance doesn't diminish the critical role Williams plays in the Rams' offensive ecosystem—particularly against a Buccaneers defense that ranks 22nd in the league against the run. The Buccaneers are surrendering 100.4 rushing yards per game while allowing 4.2 yards per carry, metrics that suggest vulnerability in their front seven. This represents a golden opportunity for the Rams to establish early offensive rhythm through the ground game.
Establishing Dominance in the Running Game
Williams has emerged as a force in the Rams' balanced offensive approach, averaging 5.3 yards per carry this season while accumulating 750 rushing yards across 11 games. His versatility extends beyond mere rushing production—he's also involved in the passing game, providing Sean McVay with multiple offensive looks that keep opposing defenses off-balance. In Week 11's victory over Seattle, Williams was directly involved in setting up or scoring all three Rams touchdowns, exemplifying his value as a multipurpose weapon.
The strategic importance of establishing Williams early cannot be overstated. When the Rams get their lead running back involved in early drives with sustained offensive success, it opens up the entire playbook for Stafford downfield. Deep shots to Puka Nacua, who is having a career year with 850 receiving yards and four touchdowns through nine games, become more effective when opposing safeties must account for the ground threat. Blake Corum provides additional depth, but Williams remains McVay's lead dog, as the head coach recently reaffirmed.
Tampa Bay's defensive struggles extending beyond their inability to stop the run—they rank 22nd overall in yards per game with 342 yards allowed. However, the specific vulnerability in rush defense creates the most exploitable matchup for Los Angeles. If Williams and the Rams' offensive line can establish early control, it forces the Buccaneers into predictable passing situations where their defensive secondary, already dealing with injury concerns including cornerback Jamel Dean's hip flexor injury, becomes susceptible.
Controlling Time of Possession and Field Position
The secondary benefit of Williams' production involves game management and field position. A consistent running attack limits Baker Mayfield's opportunities with Tampa Bay's offense, potentially keeping the Buccaneers' high-powered passing attack off the field. The Rams have already demonstrated their ability to execute this strategy effectively, evidenced by their second-lowest offensive yardage total of the season (249 yards) in Week 11, yet still securing a defensive-oriented victory.
For Williams specifically, this Week 12 matchup against Tampa Bay represents an opportunity to validate his continued importance in McVay's offensive scheme. While splitting carries with Corum is part of the Rams' approach—maximizing talent while managing workload—the narrative around Williams' role has occasionally overshadowed his consistent, productive play. Williams' performance against the Buccaneers' vulnerable run defense could reestablish his status as an irreplaceable component of Los Angeles' championship-caliber roster.
The Rams' path to victory runs through dominant running back performance and complementary football. Matthew Stafford will attract attention, but Kyren Williams remains the true X-factor in determining whether Los Angeles continues its dominant stretch or stumbles against a desperate Tampa Bay team fighting for playoff relevance.
