Just one week remains in the NFL season and the battle for the MVP has narrowed down into a two-horse race. New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye and Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford have been trading the top spot in these power rankings back and forth for months, but now Maye has taken the clear advantage.
In Week 17, Maye played a near-perfect game to get the Patriots to 13-3 on the season. With the necessary caveat that he played against the New York Jets, Maye finished 19-for-21 with 256 yards and five touchdowns, and his 99.8 QBR is tied for the highest single-game number in the metric's history since 2006. A win in Week 18 against the Miami Dolphins would secure the No. 2 seed for Maye and the Patriots in the AFC playoffs.
On the other hand, Stafford played one of his worst games of the season on Monday night in a shocking 27-24 loss to the Atlanta Falcons. In that game, Stafford finished just 22-for-38 with 269 yards and two touchdowns with three costly interceptions, while his Rams are now at risk of being the No. 6 seed in the NFC and the No. 3 finisher in the NFC West.
Just how big is the gap between Stafford and Maye? Let's get into it on the penultimate power rankings of the season.
Honorable mention: Packers QB Jordan Love, Bears QB Caleb Williams
5. Bills QB Josh Allen
Allen has been a mainstay in these rankings all season long, but he has now strung together a couple of bad games in a row to slide down the rankings. On Sunday, he was on the wrong end of a brutal showing in the pouring rain against an elite Eagles defense that saw him finish 23-for-35 with 262 yards and a pair of rushing touchdowns on quarterback sneaks. Allen had a chance to win it for the Bills on the final play, but he missed a wide open receiver on a 2-point conversion to win the game.
The reigning MVP is dealing with a foot injury that clearly affected him in this game, and that is every Bills fan's primary concern heading into the playoffs with the MVP now out of reach.
4. Chargers QB Justin Herbert
How did Herbert move up these rankings despite a close loss to the Houston Texans on Saturday? Maybe I sound like a broken record, but you just had to watch him play. Herbert was under pressure on more than 38% of his dropbacks and took five sacks against arguably the best defense in the NFL, and still had this Chargers team in position to win despite zero running game and a 14-point hole thanks to two early long touchdowns for Houston.
The Chargers lost this game because of a missed extra point and a short missed field goal from Cameron Dicker, and a drop from Oronde Gadsden II that turned a touchdown into an interception. As has been the story of the season, Herbert's spectacular play gave the Chargers a chance to win no matter what shortcomings were holding him back elsewhere on the team.
3. Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence
Not enough people are talking about what Lawrence has been doing during the second half of the season. The former No. 1 overall pick has this Jaguars team, which has a first-year head coach and has been without Travis Hunter for most of the season, with an outside chance at the top seed in the AFC heading into the final week of the regular season.
In his last five games, Lawrence has accumulated 16 total touchdowns and one interception. That pick came early on Sunday against the Indianapolis Colts, but Lawrence recovered with two rushing scores to get the Jags to 12-4 on the year. He is playing some incredible football worthy of being in the MVP discussion, and the Jaguars are a dark horse Super Bowl contender as a result.
2. Rams QB Matthew Stafford
Stafford has had a stellar season, but the Rams are sliding at the wrong time and it's hurting his MVP case as well as their playoff seeding. Monday night's loss, a weird effort that featured some uncharacteristic and somewhat panicked mistakes from Stafford, was the latest in those struggles.
The MVP is a narrative award, and Stafford throwing three picks (including a pick-six) and losing to a below-.500 team in prime time a day after Maye had the day that he had hurts his case. It's still a neck-and-neck race at this point, one that Stafford can absolutely still win. But he finds himself outside of the top spot for the first time in a couple of weeks with one game to play.
1. Patriots QB Drake Maye
The MVP discourse has officially reached a nauseating level, to the point that people are seriously discrediting what Maye did on Sunday with the tired excuse: “But it was against the Jets.” Do the Jets stink? Yes they absolutely do. Does that take away from Maye playing a nearly perfect football game? No it does not.
Maye threw five touchdowns and two incomplete passes on Sunday. His EPA per dropback was +1.28, according to Next Gen Stats. No, that's not supposed to say +0.128. It was +1.28.
Even without Mack Hollins, who had become a critical part of this passing game, and Will Campbell up front, Maye and this Patriots offense have continued to click in just his second season. The Pats are flying toward a 14-win season, 10 more than they had in his rookie year. With a week to go, Maye is the MVP of the league and has quickly become one of the best players in the sport.
