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The Minnesota Vikings are coming off a very humbling 40-3 defeat by the Dallas Cowboys in Minneapolis last Sunday. Kirk Cousins and the offense could not get anything going. The Vikings Week 12 matchup against the New England Patriots is not likely to be much easier. The Patriots boast one of the league's best defenses. They lead the NFL in a number of defensive categories. That is sure to make things interesting as the Vikings look to get back on track this week.
This will be the ninth time that the Vikings will play on Thanksgiving. However, it will be the first time they have ever done so at home. The majority of their previous appearances came in Detroit against the Lions with a couple games at Dallas. You can bet that Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook are going to want to showcase their talents with all eyes around the country on them.
Without further ado, let's get into the Vikings Week 12 predictions against the Patriots.
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4. Vikings RB Dalvin Cook held under 80 yards rushing
Everyone knows that Justin Jefferson is arguably one of the best, if not the best, receivers in the league. But that doesn't mean the Vikings are a pass-first team. Their offense still runs through Dalvin Cook and the ground game.
Everyone also knows that Bill Belichick likes to take away what his opponent does best. It would make a lot of sense for that to happen again this week. The Patriots already play as much man-to-man coverage defensively as any team in the league. We should expect to see plenty more of that as they stack the box with seven and sometimes eight defenders.
That will limit Cook's ability to get much going. Outside of his 81-yard touchdown run against the Buffalo Bills two weeks ago, Cook has rushed for a grand total of 167 yards over the last three weeks. We are looking at a 15-20 carry performance for just under 80 yards Thursday.
3. Patriots QB Mac Jones turns the ball over 2+ times
As great as New England's defense has been this year, their offense has been equally dreadful. QB Mac Jones has regressed after having a great rookie season last year. He has thrown just four touchdown passes to seven interceptions in his six starts this season.
Similarly to what the Patriots want to do, the Vikings should also be stacking the box against Rhamondre Stevenson. That will force Jones into a number of 3rd and long situations. Those are situations likely to result in positive plays for the Vikings.
Minnesota is tied with the Dallas Cowboys for third in the NFL with a +7 turnover ratio this season. The Vikings defense has 18 takeaways. Meanwhile, the Patriots rank among the league leaders with 17 giveaways. I think we can add two more to that tally, at least.
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2. Justin Jefferson showcases skills on Thanksgiving Day
Big stars like to make big plays in big time games. There usually are not many games bigger than being on Thanksgiving (outside of the playoffs of course). As I mentioned earlier, the Patriots play a ton of man-to-man defense. I don't think that is going to change this week.
So, Jefferson will see plenty of one-on-one coverage on the outside. The Patriots have good cornerbacks in Jonathan Jones, Jalen Mills and Jack Jones. But none of them are elite. I would look for Jefferson to create big plays downfield and post a big game with the lights on.
Look for Jefferson to get back over 100 yards receiving and find the end zone again.
1. Vikings escape with a narrow, 3-point win
Minnesota needs this win; not for the division. The NFC North is all but sewn up. But the Vikings need this win for morale after the shellacking they took at the hands of the Cowboys on Sunday. Kirk Cousins dropped to 10-41 for his career when facing teams with a winning record.
The Patriots are such a team, at 6-4 and having won five straight games. But as bad as Cousins record against winning teams is, take a look at the quarterbacks the Patriots have beaten this year. They beat Zach Wilson twice, Mitchell Trubisky, Jared Goff, Jacoby Brissett and Sam Ehlinger. That's not exactly a murderer's row of quarterbacks.
Cousins might not be an elite QB, but he is far superior to those guys. The Vikings have a ton of talent and will be looking to put that on full display on Thanksgiving night. It will be close, but Minnesota will win another one-score game, 20-17.
