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The New England Patriots may be one of the most confusing teams in the NFL heading into the 2023 NFL season. Nobody really knows what to expect from them. After an encouraging 2021 campaign with rookie quarterback Mac Jones leading the way, the offense took a massive step back in 2022, which resulted in the team missing out on the playoffs entirely.
2023 feels like a make-or-break year for Jones and the Patriots, but again, there's not much intel as to whether that's a good thing or a bad thing for New England. Some folks think New England is doomed, as their roster doesn't have a ton of top-end talent, and they play in one of the toughest divisions in the league. On the other hand, though, many fans are expecting a bounce-back campaign from the Patriots.
With all the different opinions and outlooks on the team, it's tough to truly gauge what they should be expected to accomplish in 2023. So with that in mind, let's take a closer look at the Patriots and their upcoming season and see what some realistic expectations could be now that their 53-man roster is set.
What should be expected of the Patriots in 2023?
The 2022 season was a bit of a mess for the Patriots. While their defense was stellar, their offense was stuck in the mud for much of the season. While Jones shoulders some of the blame, he didn't have much going his way last year. Jones was given no help from his new offensive leaders in Matt Patricia and Joe Judge, suffered a pretty serious ankle sprain early in the season, had few playmakers alongside him to take pressure off his shoulders, and had a quarterback competition sprung on him with Bailey Zappe.
In terms of mismanaging your second-year quarterback, it was a masterclass from Bill Belichick. However, it's clear that the goal is different in 2023. Bill O'Brien has been brought in to be the new offensive coordinator, and Adrian Klemm will be working with the offensive line to protect Jones. Jones is also healthy right now, has some new playmakers to help him, and resoundingly won his quarterback competition with Zappe, who is now on New England's practice squad.
The Patriots offense doesn't have a ton of top-end talent aside from Rhamondre Stevenson at running back, but Jones led a similar group to a 10-7 record in 2021. JuJu Smith-Schuster will hopefully replace Jakobi Meyers, Mike Gesicki is a versatile weapon at tight end, and Kendrick Bourne, one of Jones' favorite targets in 2021, is out of the doghouse he was stuck in for much of 2022. Add in potential diamonds in the rough in Demario Douglas and Kayshon Boutte, and Jones should have no trouble finding open targets this year.
There are concerns with the offense, though. The offensive line looked awful throughout training camp and preseason action, and again, they don't really have a true number one receiver. The biggest question is whether or not Jones can figure things out after looking lost for much of the 2022 campaign.
The good news is that, on the other side of the ball, the Patriots still have one of the best units in the league. New England's defense was wildly opportunistic last season, and that helped keep their offense in a handful of games they had no business winning. If the offense can improve even in the slightest, the defense should be able to pick up the rest of the slack.
On defense, there is a lot more top-end talent that is leading the way. Matthew Judon is one of the best pass-rushers in the NFL, and Josh Uche and Anfernee Jennings seem set to form an elite trio alongside him. Christian Barmore is in a similar boat as Jones looking to put together a bounce-back campaign after his wildly impressive rookie campaign.
Losing Devin McCourty in the secondary hurts, but this is arguably the strongest area on New England's depth chart. Christian Gonzalez, who was the team's first-round draft pick in 2023, looks like a day one starter on the outside, and Kyle Dugger could be on his way to an All-Pro breakout campaign if he can continue to develop this season.
When it comes to their record, though, how many games is New England going to win? The answer to that question falls on their offense. Just like last season, the defense is strong enough to keep the Patriots in games. The offense threw away several winnable games last year (notably against the Cincinnati Bengals and Las Vegas Raiders), and they could have earned a playoff spot without those glaring mishaps.
It is reasonable to expect the offense to be better in 2023. Jones has nothing to worry about in terms of competition, and O'Brien taking over the offense should do wonders for the third-year shotcaller. But in a loaded AFC East, it ultimately may not matter. The Buffalo Bills are one of the top teams in football, and if everything goes right for the Miami Dolphins or New York Jets, they will be right up there with them.
If nothing catastrophic happens, the Patriots should be able to finish the season with a record somewhere between 7-10 and 10-7. It's fair to expect them to take a step forward, and be a fringe wild-card contender, but it's also fair to say that they could improve and still fall victim to a very tough schedule. There are a lot of possibilities in the cards here.
A quick game-by-game prediction for New England saw them finish with a 10-7 record by my estimation, and while there are a couple of games that are toss-ups, that seems like a fair prediction. If everything goes right for the Patriots, this could feel like a carbon copy of their 2021 campaign. But if things don't go right, Jones' tenure with the Pats could end up coming to a quick end.
