The New England Patriots have a big game ahead, and they’re really rolling on a heater. And here are the Patriots’ bold predictions for their Week 15 clash against the Bills.
With a record of 11-2, the Patriots are one of the best teams in the AFC. Maybe the best. Meanwhile, the Bills trail them in the division race by two games with a record of 9-4.
So, which Patriots will step up and deliver in this key AFC East showdown?
Patriots QB Drake Maye will account for three TDs
There’s no doubt that Maye is becoming one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL. He has already thrown for 3,412 yards with 23 touchdowns and only six interceptions.
However, he isn’t running as effectively this year after averaging 7.8 yards per attempt in 2024. This season, he’s had 81 attempts for only 319 yards, an average of 3.9 — exactly half of last year’s number.
Still, the Patriots players are seeing him develop before their eyes, according to Boston.com.
“His maturation process has been second to none in my eyes,” receiver Stefon Diggs said of Maye, adding: “As far as the MVP conversation, that guy [Josh Allen] on the other side of the ball [that] we’re about to play against is a hell of a player. I believe that team goes through him.
“And at this point, I like our guy. Our guy’s been playing extremely well. I’m not going to put it all on him. We’ve obviously been supporting him, but he’s done a great job at making good decisions, play in and play out. And I’m super proud of him.”
Allen also had praise for Maye.
“He’s playing like a veteran quarterback, he’s seeing things extremely well,” Allen of Maye. “He plays at a great pace, looks like things have slowed down for him. Which, again, we hate to see that. But I’m happy for how well he’s playing because he’s a great human being on top of being a football player. We’ve just got to find a way to win on Sunday.”
Patriots RB TreVeyon Henderson will suffer from Rhamondre Stevenson's usage
Although Henderson made a splash with five touchdowns over two weeks, the rest of the season hasn’t shown much. Take away those games, and he has only one other touchdown all season.
Also, his highest yardage total outside of the 147 rushing yards against the Buccaneers is the 75 he got against the Browns.
The Bills rank No. 28 in the NFL against the run, giving up 135 yards per game. But they are No. 2 against the pass, holding opponents to 171.8 yards per game. Part of the latter is because the Bills are so bad against the run. Teams don’t throw as much because they don’t have to, and the ground attack keeps Allen off the field.
Of course, Henderson will have to overcome the problem of Mike Vrabel deciding Rhamondre Stevenson needs to be on the field a lot. Vrabel turns a blind eye to this overwhelming stat difference: Henderson averages 4.8 yards per carry while Stevenson manages only 3.2. The ground-attack usage is an issue for Henderson, according to ESPN.
“The Patriots are going to play both of these players, and probably a healthy amount,” Field Yates said. “Rhamondre Stevenson had more snaps than Henderson when we last saw the Patriots in Week 13. But Henderson did get involved as well, and continues to be the more explosive runner. I do think that Henderson has the better bet for an explosive run. Neither player is in my top 20 for running back rankings in Week 15.”
Look for Henderson to land in that 60-yard range where he’s been in the last three games, totaling 67, 66, and 62 yards on the ground. For him to have a big game, he’ll need to hit a big play in the passing game.
However, contrary to preseason “experts” predictions, Henderson hasn’t had any explosive plays in the passing game. His longest catch all season is 19 yards. And he has only four others for double-digit distance.
Patriots WR Stefon Diggs will get double-digit targets
The Patriots have invested heavily in Diggs only two times this season. They targeted him 11 times against the Jets. The other double-digit game in targets came in Week 5, when Diggs saw 12 targets against the Bills. And Diggs caught 10 balls for 146 yards in that game.
Now, there is a school of thought that says the Bills will pay more attention to Diggs this time. But he didn’t find the end zone, and the game was close. So, there’s not a direct call for the Bills to focus too much attention on Diggs.
Instead, the Bills will likely commit resources to stop the ground game. And that means Diggs will have play-action pass opportunities in intermediate routes.
Certainly, Diggs is motivated for another big game, according to a post on X by Mike Reiss.
WR Stefon Diggs on Patriots as underdogs: “Good.” Diggs says the Patriots play with an edge, in part because of how the roster has been assembled. “This team is full of (players) that were castoffs, people who were cut or that didn’t necessarily get the opportunity,” he says.”
But who will win this game? The Bills are a slight road favorite, and they will find a way to win as they did against the Bengals. Prediction: Bills 27, Patriots 24.
