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The mounting excitement for the 2023 NFL season has fantasy football enthusiasts eagerly anticipating the drafting process. However, amid the fervor, it becomes imperative to spotlight potential busts who might not meet lofty expectations. We delve into a quintet of quarterbacks who have the potential to underwhelm fantasy owners during the forthcoming season. From Deshaun Watson's shaky return to Kyler Murray's post-injury performance, we dissect each player's recent history, trends, and plausible pitfalls.
1. Deshaun Watson (Cleveland Browns)
Deshaun Watson's reputation as a fantasy quarterback of remarkable potential was firmly established with consecutive top-five finishes in the NFL seasons spanning from 2018 to 2020. However, his return to the field after a 700-day absence in 2022 showcased a player struggling both as a performer on the field and as a fantasy point generator.
Upon his return, Watson managed a meager average of 15.1 fantasy points per game. He cracked the top-12 quarterback list in only two out of six games played. Alarming statistical data further underscored his struggles. Watson languished at 30th position for passer rating among quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks. In addition, he held the 28th spot in yards per attempt as well as touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Considering Watson's potential rust and his disappointing 2022 campaign, caution seems prudent here. Remember also the tendency of Kevin Stefanski-led offenses to not prioritize passing volume.
Deshaun Watson first touchdown in over 700 days.pic.twitter.com/GEsc0L0UCx
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) December 11, 2022
2. Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys)
Once a reliable weekly starter in fantasy football, Dak Prescott's star has lost some of its luster. Prescott's prowess as an elite fantasy option often stemmed from a potent supporting cast and his dual-threat capabilities. However, since his ankle injury in 2020, Prescott's dynamism on the field has diminished. In fact, he has a mere 45 carries yielding 182 yards and a single touchdown since then. The once-prominent rushing element in his game has surely waned.
Sure, the potential resurgence of the passing game with the addition of Brandin Cooks and a possibly healthier Michael Gallup exists. Still, the shift of play-calling duties to Mike McCarthy could translate to reduced passing volume. McCarthy's inclination toward a slower pace counters the high-tempo approach of departed offensive coordinator Kellen Moore.
Also, Prescott had a career-high 15 interceptions thrown in the previous season. In addition, he has limited rushing upside and questionable volume. These make Prescott's status as a consistent QB1 seem precarious.
3. Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis Colts)
Anthony Richardson's anointment as the Week 1 starter for the Colts is undoubtedly a source of enthusiasm. His raw talent is undeniable. However, it's imperative to separate this optimism from immediate fantasy success.
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Richardson's growth trajectory will predominantly emerge through on-field experiences. The presence of backup Gardner Minshew also doesn't offer enough credibility to sideline the fourth overall pick. Yet, while the Colts place their QB1 trust in Richardson from the outset, this doesn't necessarily translate to immediate fantasy production. His substantial upside is accompanied by the anticipated challenges of a learning curve.
Remember that he had a mere 13 starts during his time in Florida. This makes Richardson one of the NFL's least experienced starters out there. Lackluster junior season stats also raise concerns about his transition to the professional level. Recall that he had 2,549 passing yards, 17 passing touchdowns, and nine interceptions in that year.
Yes, Richardson's rushing ability provides upside. Still, only Andrew Luck since 2012 has achieved a top-12 fantasy finish among rookie quarterbacks with a completion rate below 60 percent. These historical odds aren't in Richardson's favor.
4. Geno Smith (Seattle Seahawks)
Geno Smith's resurgence in 2022 as the NFL's Comeback Player of the Year was captivating. After seven years, he reclaimed a full-time starting position and showcased remarkable numbers. He even steered the Seahawks to a playoff spot. Consequently, Smith's fantasy status skyrocketed. It even culminated in a QB5 finish in both standard and PPR formats.
Yet, duplicating his 2022 performance is no guarantee in 2023. The Seahawks' daunting strength of schedule poses a challenge for Smith. Take note, however, that Seattle invested a first-round pick in Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba. This should enhance Smith's receiving options alongside DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Additionally, the acquisition of UCLA RB Zach Charbonnet in the second round further bolstered the team's offensive firepower.
Having said that, while Smith is flanked by an array of talent, replicating a top-five overall finish remains an uphill task. There's a huge question about whether he can repeat what he did in 2022.
5. Kyler Murray (Arizona Cardinals)
Kyler Murray's 2022 season witnessed an average of over 18 fantasy points per game. However, Murray's circumstances have changed since his last appearance. A torn ACL in his 11th start of 2022 could potentially curtail his rushing tendencies in 2023. Furthermore, the departure of his primary target, DeAndre Hopkins, compounds his challenges.
It's advisable to approach drafting Murray with heavy caution. We advise fantasy football managers to consider him as a potential second-option quarterback at best. Avoid selecting him early in your drafts.
Looking Ahead
In preparation for the 2023 NFL season, fantasy football managers must not ignore the possibility of disappointments stemming from overvalued or high-risk players. We have Deshaun Watson's adjustment and Dak Prescott's setbacks. There is also Anthony Richardson's untapped potential, Geno Smith's inconsistency, and Kyler Murray's regression. Each of these quarterbacks presents inherent risks to prospective fantasy owners. A cautious and conservative approach can help fantasy managers make informed decisions that maximize their chances of constructing a victorious team in the upcoming 2023 season.
