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As we arrive at the beginning of the holiday season with Thanksgiving today and Christmas less that one month away, the 2024 NFL season is officially entering its stretch run, which means it's time to really start digging in and figuring out the answer to one important question… who is going to be named the 2024 NFL MVP?
Now to be clear, all 32 teams around the league have either five or six games remaining on their schedule, and by no means has any player jumped out to a substantial enough lead in this long-distance race that it's worth calling it just yet. There is plenty of time for this ride to take us in a number of different directions before the votes are cast and the next NFL MVP is named.
As things stand right now, it feels like the MVP race is one with three serious contenders — Josh Allen, Saquon Barkley and Lamar Jackson — and then a half-dozen or so players who have qualifications that might be good enough to end up being a serious contender by the time the regular season ends if things go right over the next month and a half. Let's start at the very top, and work our way down.
1. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
As much as I would really, really love to put Eagles running back Saquon Barkley in the top spot, I can't look past the fact that 17 of the last 20 NFL MVP's have been a quarterback. I also can't overlook the fact that no matter how much the league would like to pretend it's not, the MVP is a narrative-driven award. And right now, the player with the best narrative is Bills quarterback Josh Allen. It helps Allen's cause too that on a game-to-game basis, there may not be a QB asked to do more than him.
As I wrote a couple of weeks back after Allen clinched Buffalo's win with a 26-yard scramble on 4th-and-2 late in the 4th quarter, this may have been the NFL equivalent of a Heisman Moment, a singular play or performance that voters will reflexively return back to when they get ready to cast their vote. However, the #2 player on this list had his own Heisman Moment on Sunday Night Football earlier this week.
2. Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia Eagles
Over the last twenty seasons, only three running backs — Shaun Alexander, LaDainian Tomlinson and Adrian Peterson — have broken through the glass ceiling and won the NFL MVP. It's entirely possible that Saquon Barkley could backwards hurdle his way through the glass ceiling this year and become the next running back to earn this honor.
Right now, Barkley is leading the league with 223 carries and 1,392 rushing yards, and assuming he plays all 17 games, he's on pace to break Eric Dickerson's single-season record for rushing yards. And not that there's any way to track this, but remember what a disaster the Eagles over the last half of last season? Notice how that hasn't been an issue at all this year? I don't know how much of this you can put on the shoulders of Saquon Barkley, but I do know he probably deserves more credit than he's gotten.
3. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Given the numbers that Lamar Jackson has put up this season, it's actually a little wild that he's not running away with the MVP for the third time in his career this year. He's only 75 yards shy of passing for more yards this year than he did during his first MVP season, and he's already thrown more touchdowns (27) than he did last year in his second MVP season (24). He's completing a career high 67.3% of his passes, and his 117.9 passer rating is the 5th-highest in league history.
And yes, I'm comfortable with Lamar being in third.
4. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
This is where our drop-off starts, but that's not to say that Jared Goff isn't having a sensational season. Putting his five-interception debacle against the Houston Texans aside, Goff has been pretty clean all year, giving the 10-1 Lions everything they need out of the quarterback position. However, that is admittedly not always that much. Goff has benefitted from a Sonic & Knuckles ground attack, a cast of dynamic pass-catchers, and one of the league's best play-callers.
Ultimately, that's probably why Jared Goff isn't getting any higher than 4th on an MVP ballot this year.
5. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
JK Dobbins was the first to offer Justin Herbert an MVP endorsement a couple of weeks ago after the fifth-year quarterback shined in a primetime game against Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals. I don't know that Herbert will end up with the gaudy numbers he needs to really make a push for the NFL MVP, nor will the Chargers have a division title to their name that boosts Herbert's qualifications.
Honorable Mention: Patrick Mahomes, Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, Joe Burrow, Baker Mayfield
