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The 2025 NFL season is less than 100 days away. Most NFL teams have already begun organized team activities and training camp is just a few months away. Now is the perfect time to begin making predictions and projections ahead of the 2025 NFL season.
That is exactly what ESPN's Seth Walder did in a recent article. Walder introduced ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI), a football ratings and projection model.
Walder used the FPI to make several projections ahead of the 2025 NFL season. One of the more interesting projections Walder wrote about was the odds of winning the NFC North division.
Walder began by noting that the FPI has faith in all four teams in the division.
“It's not a big surprise, but every team in NFC North ranks in the top half of the FPI ratings,” Walder wrote. “Detroit leads the way at No. 4, followed by the Packers (No. 8), Vikings (No. 15) and Bears (No. 16).”
Every team in the division got better during the offseason, but the Bears improved the most.
Ultimately the FPI believes that the Lions will win the division for a third consecutive season. But Walder made it clear that every team in the division has a chance.
“So, who comes out ahead? The Lions lead the way with a 41% shot to win the division, with the Packers clocking in at 25%. But they all have a chance, as even the Bears are at 15%,” Walder concluded.
But where do the Minnesota Vikings stand in the NFC North?
The Vikings feel like the forgot team in this exercise.
So what did ESPN's FPI think about the Vikings?
Walder noted that Vikings fans may be surprised that their team is only 15th in the FPI's rankings. But he tried to explain why that is.
“If there is a curveball, it's that Minnesota ranks only 15th after going 14-3 in 2024,” Walder added. “But the Vikings relied on their defense — which ranked third in EPA per play — last season while ranking a mediocre 15th on offense. And even though Brian Flores remains as defensive coordinator, defensive success is hard to replicate.”
Walder also highlighted that second-year quarterback J.J. McCarthy is a real wild card in the equation. It is fair to expect some regression from Minnesota because of the change at quarterback.
“While he might possess more upside than last year's starter, Sam Darnold, McCarthy's downside is almost certainly lower,” Walder wrote. “Therefore, the FPI gives Minnesota only a 19% chance to win the division and a 43% chance to reach the playoffs.”
It will be interesting to see how competitive the NFC North division is during the 2025 NFL season.
