NFL picks, predictions, odds for Week 5: The bye weeks begin

Week 4 ended with a whimper with two dog Monday night games. Will Week 5 be a little stronger all the way through? We'll see starting Thursday night, with another NFC West showdown, this time between the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams. So, let’s dig into the ClutchPoints 2025 NFL Week 5 picks, predictions, and odds column.

Last weekend delivered high highs and low lows. On the plus side, there was a fun first-ever game in Dublin, Jaxson Dart’s winning debut, another blocked field goal that decided a game, and a ton of fun (if ultimately unsatisfying) 40-40 Sunday night tie.

Unfortunately, though, there were also several crushing injuries to the likes of Malik Nabers, Tyreek Hill, Joe Alt, and Lamar Jackson. Let’s hope that the NFL Week 5 calendar can deliver more of the former and a whole lot less of the latter.

With the first round of byes this week, we say goodbye to the Atlanta Falcons, Chicago Bears, Green Bay Packers, and Pittsburgh Steelers. Hopefully you enjoyed Sunday’s full complement of games, because we don’t get another 16-game weekend until Thanksgiving’s Week 13.

Here in Week 5, we’ll get a Thursday night game, a 9:30 a.m. ET matchup from London, England, six 1:00 p.m. ET games, four late window tilts, a Sunday night affair, and one Monday night showdowns.

Week 4 was a tough one against the spread with some wild finishes and backdoor covers. While we went 10-6 straight up, we were only 6-10 ATS. That brings us to 42-22 straight up and 32-32 ATS on the season, so at least we’re still breaking even on that side.

Previous weeks: Week 1 | Week 2 | Week 3 | Week 4

So, let’s get right into the NFL Week 5 picks, predictions, and odds.

Courtesy of DraftKings, here are the NFL odds.

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-8.5)

The Rams and 49ers are in a virtual three-way tie with the Seahawks for the top of the NFL West, making this Thursday night game an important one. But neither team is coming in great, as LA should have lost last week (if not for Adonai Mitchell) while San Francisco did.

This game has trended Rams, with the line jumping from -6 to -8.5 over the course of the week. And, while the 49ers continue to be incredibly banged-up, this is still a divisional game, which are often closer than meets the eye, especially between Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay. We’ll still take the Rams, but not by more than a touchdown.

Pick: Rams 23-20

UPDATE: Well, we nailed the 49ers keeping it close, and if not for some tough play calls (and execution of those calls), we would have hit it just about on the head with the Rams by three or four. We'll take the ATS win, though. Onward and upward! 

Minnesota Vikings (-4.5) at Cleveland Browns

Back to jolly old London, the Browns travel overseas to face a Vikings team that has been in the British Isles since taking on the Steelers in Dublin last week. While that does seem like an advantage, to be on local time for more than a week, the Vikings are also starting Carson Wentz again, which is a major disadvantage.

For the Browns, they still have an incredible defense that is going to give Wentz and the Vikes fits. Yes, they are starting third-round rookie Dillon Gabriel, but that should mean they will come out strong with a solid script that fits his strength. If that happens, the Browns could pull off the upset here because Wentz is just that bad.

Pick: Browns 19-18

Houston Texans (-2.5) at Baltimore Ravens

The Texans got a win last week, but it was against the Titans, who may be the worst (and likely have the worst coach) in the league. On the NFL Week 5 schedule, the Ravens provide a much bigger challenge. However, without Lamar Jackson, this is a very different team.

Cooper Rush is a solid backup, but the Ravens offense is highly reliant on Jackson running. Without that, they may struggle with the tough Texans defense, and CJ Stroud and company should put up enough points to get this win.

Pick: Texans 24-20

New York Giants at New Orleans Saints (-2.5)

The Giants looked much more competent with Jaxson Dart running the show, and the combination of him and fellow rookie Cam Skattebo is legit. Plus, the Giants' defense is also for real, which will present problems for the Saints.

The future is now for New York, and for the second straight week, they will get on the winning side of the equation against one of the worst teams in the league.

Pick: Giants 16-13

Miami Dolphins (-1.5) at Carolina Panthers

When Tua Tagovailoa plays well, the team wins, which it did in Week 4 on Monday night. Yes, Tyreek Hill is now out, but Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane are still dangerous weapons that will present problems for the Panthers. With the better team clear here, the NFL Week 5 picks, predictions, and odds column will take Miami to win by a touchdown.

Pick: 21-14

Las Vegas Raiders at Indianapolis Colts (-7)

The Raiders may have figured something out last week, despite losing to the Bears on a blocked field goal at the buzzer, and it may be as simple as letting Ashton Jeanty go back to his odd college pre-snap stance.

While the Colts looked great in the first several weeks and only lost due to two Adonai Mitchell mistakes, they aren’t quite the team they seemed early on. Daniel Jones is still the QB, so while the Colts should still win, covering by a touchdown seems like too much.

Pick: Colts 24-23

Denver Broncos at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5)

Through four weeks, the Eagles haven’t looked like world beaters even though they are still undefeated. They have yet to win a game by more than one score. On the Broncos' side, Bo Nix and the offense are finally starting to settle down and find their groove after two losses by a total of four points.

This will be a tight game throughout, as both teams can look like contenders or pretenders from drive to drive. Ultimately, the Eagles are the champs, so they will find a way to win, but the NFL Week 5 picks, predictions, and odds column will take the hook here and go Eagles to win, Broncos to cover.

Pick: Eagles 28-27

Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) at New York Jets

These are two teams going in opposite directions. After showing promise early on, the Jets are back to their Jets-y ways, finding ways to lose. The Cowboys are finding ways to win (or at least tie) with Dak Prescott playing at an MVP level and George Pickens filling in nicely for CeeDee Lamb.

When the Jets play at home, there is always as much of a chance that the crowd will turn on them as there is that it will lift them up. The MetLife faithful will show up in Week 5 ready to give the team a piece of their mind if things start to go bad, and go bad it shall.

Pick: Cowboys 30-16

Tennessee Titans at Arizona Cardinals (-8.5)

At the end of their Thursday night loss to the Seahawks, the Cardinals' offense finally started to operate efficiently, especially when it comes to Marvin Harrison Jr. Their running back room is decimated with injuries right now, but they still have more weapons than the Titans.

The formula here seems simple. If Kyler Murray runs a little more and Harrison gets involved early, the Cardinals should roll. There is, of course, a good chance that doesn’t happen because these are the Cardinals, but the NFL Week 5 picks, predictions, and odds column thinks it will, so Arizona by a lot.

Pick: Cardinals 28-9

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks (-3)

The Seahawks are on a hot streak right now, winning three in a row, while the Buccaneers has their three-game win streak broken last week by the Eagles. Which trend will win out on Sunday?

Lumen Field is still a tough place to play for any team, so Baker Mayfield will have his work cut out for him. Most of the public money seems to be going to the Buccaneers, at least covering, if not winning outright, so we’ll zag and take the Seahawks by a full touchdown.

Pick: Seahawks 28-21

Washington Commanders at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)

The Chargers massively choked last week, losing to the Giants and a rookie quarterback in his first NFL start. Still, the team has looked good overall, and that could have just been a hiccup. On the Commanders' side, they get Jayden Daniels back, but Terry McLaurin is still probably out.

Bettors are liking the return of Daniels, but even if he gets back to full strength, he’s still had a bit of a sophomore slump in Year 2. Justin Herbert will return to form on Sunday, and the Chargers will take this one comfortably.

Pick: Chargers 23-16

Detroit Lions (-10) at Cincinnati Bengals

This seems like a pretty easy one to call. The Bengals are frustrated and failing without Joe Burrow. The offense revolves around the QB, and without him, there is no unit on the field that can help pick them up. Dan Campbell’s bunch, on the other hand, is keeping things rolling, especially in the run game, so they will pound the Bengals into submission here.

Pick: Lions 31-13

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-8.5)

The Bills messed around with the Saints long enough last week to not cover the spread, despite winning comfortably by two scores. In this primetime division game, there is a good case that it will go the same way, especially since the Patriots are better than the Saints.

Maybe Josh Allen gets up for this one and pounds the Pats in primetime to send a message. Until we see that this season, though, the NFL Week 5 picks, predictions, and odds column will predict more of the same, and say the Bills win but not by margins.

Pick: Bills 28-21

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Did the real Chiefs finally stand up last week? The team is getting healthier and more comfortable with their offense, which allowed them to dispense the disappointing Ravens. With another disappointing team on the docket this week, the NFL Week 5 picks, predictions, and odds column likes the Chiefs again.

For years, KC has been the king of winning but not covering. After their tough start, though, they are finally motivated to take the regular season seriously, and the Jags will bear the brunt of that on Monday night.

Pick: Chiefs 32-23

Establish the Pass Podcast Week 5 Predictions